Ian Richards is hoping Adri Arnaus again ends his season in sensational fashion as our golf expert looks ahead to the final round of the DP World Tour Championship.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Adri Arnaus at 18/1 (1/4 1,2,3)
2020 has been an unpredictable year and it seems rather fitting that the questions of who will win the final European Tour event of the season and even who will be crowned Race to Dubai winner are hard to answer ahead of Sunday's final round.
In 11 past editions of the DP World Tour Championship, only Robert Karlsson has come from off the pace: the other 10 winners were all within one shot of the lead, tied for the lead or one or two shots clear. However, after a fascinating Saturday we are left with a very congested leaderboard with Patrick Reed, Matt Fitzpatrick and Laurie Canter sharing the lead on 11-under, with a further four players sat on 10-under.
It’s all set up to be an absolutely cracking final round and it seems highly likely the winner will emerge from those in the top seven. It’s not that someone is unlikely to shoot low from off the pace, it’s just that there is so much talent at the top that one of them will shoot a low round and claim the title - and potentially the season-long prize, too.
The old adage of it being difficult to follow up a low one was certainly the case with Patrick Reed, who was particularly scrappy on the back nine after Friday's 64. He scrambled hard, holing out from the bunker on 15 for birdie, and was then incredibly fortunate on 17 when his ball somehow clung onto the bank, avoiding water before playing a superb chip shot to save par. He then drove it waywardly on 18, narrowly avoiding the hazard, and certainly rode his luck.
Still, Reed is right where he wants to be and is the only player here who knows that victory would guarantee the Race to Dubai, which he leads. He is the obvious favourite and it would be no surprise to see him bounce back from a difficult third round to scoop the lot.
Matt Fitzpatrick has obviously been here before and won this event back in 2016 and he has won the European Masters twice. His last win was in that event back in 2018 and he has come up shy on several occasions since – in fact he's runner-up six times since that last win. With that statistic in the back of my mind he seems short enough at a best-priced 7/2.
Laurie Canter is without doubt the surprise package at the top although he is having the best year of his professional career with runner-up slots in the Portugal Masters and Italian Open. His career has been played out on many different tours – EuroPro, Sunshine, Challenge and the main tour – yet in 150 starts he is still yet to win. With all the pressure, a massive winner's cheque, and the quality around him, I simply can’t see him getting the job done.
It is safe to say Lee Westwood has the most experience at the top and won the inaugural edition of this way back in 2009. The 47-year-old has amassed 25 European Tour titles in a long career and the latest of those came earlier this year in the desert in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. It would be foolish to rule him out even with a stacked leaderboard, and a back problem which he says begins to cause problems at around the 14th or 15th hole each day.
Viktor Hovland secured his second PGA Tour win just last week in Mexico and it was no surprise to see him start off slow here with the tiredness, jet lag and pure emotion involved in that, but he has improved with every round here in Dubai. A bogey-free 66 propelled him up the leaderboard but that was mainly due a fast start and I do wonder if he began to run out of steam on the back nine so at 9/2 I am happy to let him run.
Robert MacIntyre was touted as a sure fire winner on the European Tour and he eventually picked up his first title in the Cyprus Showdown last month. That was a weak field compared to this week and was an unusual format with a final round shootout with all scores set back to par. Given the stacked nature of this leaderboard something similar will be needed here, but on balance he looks short enough and there's no urge to add to Monday's 25/1 tip in Sporting Life's outright preview.
Largely by a process of elimination I come to my selection to finally get the job done on the European Tour and part of the justification comes from how the short career of ADRI ARNAUS has panned out to date.
He started out on the Alps Tour in 2017 and after a play-off win and lots of top finishes he won the Alps Tour Grand Final. Having graduated to the Challenge Tour in 2018, after plenty of near-misses and top finishes he won the Grand Final here in the UAE, and now he's contending for another 'grand final' - this time at the top.
In theory maybe he should have won this event last year with that pattern but he now has the chance to repeat what he has already done twice in his fledgeling career and he's not the type to be overawed by playing with Hovland in a young, aggressive two-ball which could produce fireworks.
This big-hitting Spaniard now lives in Dubai and he has a great game for the Earth Course, which he's demonstrated by playing the last two rounds in nine-under having made a costly, late mistake in round one. He's been in the mix in Italy and South Africa lately, and was right in contention at the halfway stage at Wentworth, and is undoubtedly one of the best young players on the circuit.
With his weakness coming around the greens these big putting surfaces have probably helped and when the first win does come, there's a suspicion it'll be in high-class company and possibly from just off the pace. He'll have to do much better than at Leopard Creek a fortnight ago, where he looked like the winner until an extremely disappointing back-nine, but he's evidently a fast learner and looks worth chancing at the odds.
Posted at 1445 GMT on 12/12/20
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
