Free golf betting tips for 2021 majors including Open Championship and US Open

• Part one of Ben Coley's Antepost Angle (published 16/12) is here

Golf betting tips: US Open

1pt e.w. Matthew Wolff at 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Cameron Champ at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

When it comes to debate, the US Open stands head and shoulders above the rest of the major championships. Conditions are either too easy, or too difficult - often during the same event, even on the same day. In 2020, the much-maligned USGA appeared to benefit from the safe bet of Winged Foot, although during the first round there were still cries that scoring was far too low. Come the end of the week, only one player broke par, and Justin Thomas applauded the USGA for its stewardship. It was a success.

And yet still there was controversy, this time over the champion, Bryson DeChambeau, and how he went about it. That's the US Open wherever it goes: there will be discussion over every detail, from scoring on day one to the champion at the end of day four.

In 2021, I expect a different kind of continuity. For a nomadic event, where we can be at Shinnecock one year and Pebble Beach the next, or go from Congressional to Olympic Club to Merion, the transition from Winged Foot to Torrey Pines might be the smoothest. Both are long. Both have extremely thick rough. And both have fairways which are among the hardest to hit in the United States.

Without going over old ground, any perception that hard-to-hit fairways favour those who are best at hitting fairways is flawed. Instead, these dynamics play into the hands of the likes of DeChambeau, who suddenly produced elite approach-play numbers when so often this had been a weakness. Why? Because when everyone is playing from the rough, he who is closest to the green, who is strongest, who has the steepest attack angle, is likely to come off best.

DeChambeau then could successfully defend his title, and 14/1 about him doing so does make some appeal. This is not the Masters, where the Champions Dinner and the rest of the pomp and ceremony puts new winners into a new and difficult situation from the moment they arrive. There is still added responsibility, a different kind of pressure, and the usual hurdles for a defending champion to clear, but doing so is easier. Brooks Koepka managed it, and DeChambeau could too.

But at this stage I would much rather chance MATTHEW WOLFF, who is a 45/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power) shot with an obvious chance and could feasibly go off considerably shorter in the market.

The American didn't win in 2020, but he did everything else - including contending for both the PGA Championship (T4) and the US Open (2), his first two major starts. Only at Augusta did he stumble, but that's the event where experience matters most, and he still made a strong start before narrowly failing to progress to the weekend.

Clearly, he's already capable of contending for and winning majors, and a US Open similar to Winged Foot looks an obvious opportunity. Remember, Wolff was the 54-hole leader and fighting for favouritism with DeChambeau entering the final round back in September, and though no match for his compatriot still battled on well to finish runner-up.

That experience will not be lost on him, and was distinctly separate to his come-from-behind fourth in the PGA Championship. It gives him the platform to go on win next time an opportunity comes along, and I can think of few more suitable venues than Torrey Pines, where he was a rock-solid 21st on his debut in the Farmers Insurance Open back in January.

Unlike the 2020 US Open, we do have stacks of course form here and it will lead some to the likes of Jon Rahm, Jason Day, even Marc Leishman and Brandt Snedeker. These are players who have won the Farmers and plainly love the layout, though it's worth noting it will play differently under a USGA-style set-up in June versus a PGA Tour event in January.

That's perhaps why, Tiger Woods aside, the last US Open here saw several contenders leave behind modest course form, and combined with the fact I expect this to be a bombers' paradise is enough to avoid adding Harris English at 66/1.

English is playing like one of the world's best golfers and loves Torrey Pines. Given that he placed in the US Open at Winged Foot there are strong grounds for 66/1 being good value, but I'm content to stick with the 100/1 ticket for the Masters that was advised last week. It may well be that Augusta proves a better opportunity.

Instead, CAMERON CHAMP is considered overpriced at 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair), with anything 100/1 and bigger more than acceptable.

Like Wolff, this big-hitting Californian contended for the PGA Championship on home soil, and Champ went on to produce an eye-catching debut in the Masters where a top-20 finished underlined the potential he has.

Though less consistent than some of his contemporaries, that's pretty much solely down to the putter and when this monster hitter does perform just adequately on the greens, typically he's not far away. There is of course no way of knowing how he'll putt for an event six months away; the point here is that he's genuinely world-class otherwise.

If Champ starts to hole a few more, he'll rocket up the rankings and I can see him contending for more majors in the immediate future. There may be few as suitable as a US Open at Torrey Pines, where the South Course can play extremely long, and where - just as was the case at Winged Foot - the majority of shots are played from the rough.

One of the two longest hitters on the PGA Tour, Champ will be at an advantage under such conditions and he too played nicely in the Farmers. That alone wouldn't be enough given the changing conditions, but it at least gives him some experience of the course, and he should arrive with the belief he's good enough to win.

Lee Westwood's closest call in a major came here in 2008 and he's respected at a massive price, but fellow 40-something BUBBA WATSON is a much better bet at the same odds despite concerns around his overall record in the US Open.

I've argued virtually every year for five or more that Bubba is worth opposing in this, because he simply hasn't demonstrated the patience or the desire to engage in the sort of battle the USGA initiates. That's why he's managed just one top-20 finishes in 11 tries since finishing fifth at Oakmont way back in 2007, and remains a worry.

That being said, the specific nature of the 2020 US Open clearly suited him in some respects, as he ranked third in strokes-gained ball-striking to the first two on the leaderboard. That eye-catching performance, undermined totally by a shocking display on the greens, is enough to encourage me that he could produce something similar at Torrey Pines - where he has experience of making plenty of putts having won the Farmers in 2010.

Again, I wouldn't get hung-up on Farmers form in general, but we're talking about a 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) chance here and one whose performances depend so much on mindset. It may well be that Watson believes that he's at an advantage at a course where he's won before, and that he is capable of winning a US Open here. That could make all the difference.

Crucially, all the nagging doubts I have are factored into the price. A few weeks ago, Watson went off in the 33-40/1 bracket for the Masters, and it wasn't just because he's a two-time winner - those odds reflected the fact he'd been hitting the ball beautifully in the weeks leading up to it, finishing seventh and fifth and appearing back close to his best.

Should he carry that form into 2021, Watson may well win again at Riviera or go close at Augusta - and he's no bigger than 40/1 for the Masters. While there's little doubt he's more likely to win that event than this one, the price disparity is much too big and I expect a fully engaged Bubba when next we see him, given that it's probably his last opportunity to represent America in a home Ryder Cup.

Don't underestimate what that means to the player who wept tears of joy when making the side for the first time in 2010, despite having just lost a play-off for the PGA Championship. With plenty to play for, at a course he likes, it's not difficult to envisage his best US Open yet, and the fact that Paddy Power make him the same price as Chez Reavie, Alex Noren and Ian Poulter underlines the value we're getting.

Golf betting tips: The Open Championship

1pt e.w. Danny Willett at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Ryan Palmer at 300/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Last but by no means least, here's hoping we have an Open Championship at Royal St George's in July. This was the men's major we missed in 2020, the R&A cancelling it when it became clear that spectators would not be able to attend. It appears unlikely they'll be out in full force in Kent this summer, but presumably the show must go on regardless.

When it comes around, Shane Lowry will be defending having had the honour of being Champion Golfer of the Year for twice as long as anyone before him. The Irishman showed at Portrush that under pure links conditions, few are as comfortable, and despite modest form since it's no surprise that the 80/1 quoted by one firm recently has been taken.

This far out, the Open is the major where I'd be least inclined to consider those at the head of the market. Who's to say whether there might be potential for a big draw bias, or whether the preceding week's Scottish Open might suddenly look like a really sensible way to have prepared. In the months between now and then, there's so much information we can gather and at the best of times, it's the one event where the best players in the world are most vulnerable.

Tyrrell Hatton could go off a lot shorter than 50/1 if he continues to play as he has for the best part of 18 months now, and the 66/1 about Tony Finau won't be there if he does win again in the interim, but I'll keep things a little more speculative and begin with DANNY WILLETT.

I wouldn't say firms are taking a big chance in offering 100/1 (General) about an inconsistent player, but it won't take much in the way of form to see him go off shorter once we hear more about how he won the English Amateur Championship here at Sandwich once upon a time.

Willett has a strong Open record, too, with top-six finishes in 2015 and 2019, and I was interested to hear Robert Rock talk up how well he's swinging it at the end of 2020 where there were flashes of promise in Dubai.

There's no doubt his volatile form adds risk here but the fact he's hosting the British Masters in May guarantees him media coverage, and I really don't think it's going to take a great deal for his odds to tumble as we get closer to the off.

We know he's good enough to win majors after his heroics at Augusta in 2016, and since then he's saved his best for Rolex Series events in Dubai and England. That big-time ability is worthy of respect and nobody should be surprised if he does add another major championship to what's a classy CV.

If and when it does come my money would be on the Open, and he's worth a speculative bet.

RYAN PALMER is hardly the most inspiring selection with which to round things off, but at 300/1 with BetVictor and 250/1 generally, the Texan has to be added to the staking plan.

There's no denying the fact that Americans have defied the expectations of those who say they can't play links golf. That's true everywhere, but their record at Royal St George's is particularly eye-catching with so many threatening Darren Clarke here in 2011, nine years after Ben Curtis was a shock winner.

Curtis went on to win a Texas Open in really difficult, breezy conditions, and we had a Texan winner of the Open back in 2017 when Jordan Spieth triumphed. It's fanciful to suggest Palmer could follow suit, but he played some of the best golf of his life in 2020, including when second under tough conditions at Muirfield Village, and looks overpriced on that basis.

Throw in the fact that he's a strong wind player with a good Open record, and there's actually much to like. Palmer was 30th here in 2011, months after he'd lost a play-off in a Texas Open played in an absolutely gale; remarkably, he went on to finish 30th again in both 2015 and 2016 Opens, and he is precisely the type to pop up and place if conditions play into his hands.

Having ended 2020 with fourth place behind three of the world's best players in the ZOZO Championship, he's up to 30th in the world - close to his career high - and yet he's listed alongside Scott Piercy (142nd, unlikely to qualify, similar age, never made an Open cut) and various others who aren't in the field and aren't about to alter that.

Palmer is by no means a likely Open winner, but his form in 2020 and past efforts in the UK entitle him to be closer to 100/1 than the 300s we can take, with plenty of 250/1 going, too. He's been completely overlooked and such is the value in the prices quoted that I'm compelled to stick to a full point each-way.

Posted at 1700 GMT on 23/12/20

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