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Free betting tips: Ben Coley's Andalucia Masters preview
Our hugely profitable golf tipster Ben Coley has five each-way fancies for this week's Andalucia Masters.
Last week, Jon Rahm started clear favourite for the Italian Open, half the price of compatriot Sergio Garcia.
While never threatening to win the event, Rahm would go on to beat Garcia by three shots and 15 places yet, just says later, it's now Garcia who is ever so slightly shorter in the market than the heir to his throne.
And that's because we are back at Valderrama, the European Tour's spiritual home and a course where Garcia's record is phenomenal. In 11 starts he's managed a remarkable 10 top-10 finishes, and more than half the time he's earned a payout for each-way backers.
It's safe to say, then, that his hard-fought breakthrough here at the 2011 Andalucia Masters was long overdue and so too is this title defence of sorts, the event returning to the European Tour for the first time since.
Garcia's claims are obvious and this field is not deep, so 5/1 cannot be called a bad price, but is it a particularly good one? I would suggest not and part of the reasoning is that he was a point bigger six years ago, despite having won his preceding start, also in Spain, by a whopping 11 shots.
That may be a simplistic view and Garcia will be hard to keep out of the frame, but his third-place finish in last year's Spanish Open at this wonderful golf course came courtesy of a flying final round and I was a little underwhelmed with his effort in Milan last week. Garcia exuded tee-to-green control but ultimately went backwards over the weekend and probably isn't at his absolute best right now.
As far as Rahm goes, the case for is obvious, but the case against more compelling. This claustrophobic venue simply does not allow him to reach for his favourite club, the driver, and by his own admission his weakness is short irons. On a fiddly track whose greens are barely visible to the naked eye, that's a massive concern.
Shane Lowry is striking the ball beautifully and must have a big chance despite last week's missed cut, while Soren Kjeldsen's record here is akin to Garcia's and he'd be of serious interest but for playing just once a month lately. It's hard to know why he's not taken part in events such as last week's and there's no rush to take a best of 20/1 about a player who might not be at his sharpest.
Instead, I'm going to chance Max Kieffer building on last week's top-20 finish which secured his playing rights for 2017.
This is the final event of the regular season, meaning one last opportunity for those outside the qualification boundaries to force their way in, but Kieffer can play free from such pressure after a return to something like his best.
What I find really interesting is that everything about the German's profile suggests that the considerably more demanding test of Valderrama - where Andrew Johnston won in +1 last spring - should prove much more suitable than a shootout near Monza.
In each of his five career-best finishes, if we use world ranking points as our measure, Kieffer has not had to shoot double-figures under par. He famously lost a nine-hole play-off for the Spanish Open having carded five-under to enter it, while his sole Challenge Tour win came in seven-under.
Kieffer was placed in the Irish Open won by Rory McIlroy, in which only the host got beyond nine-under, while he was behind winner Kjeldsen in the previous edition of the same event when the Dane shot two-under. The fifth of these performances came in Sweden where, just as in Ireland, only a class local got to double-figures as Alex Noren took the title.
Throw in a record of 2-5-9-29 in the Open de Espana, the latter effort coming here after a month off last spring, and it's clear that Kieffer's return to form in Italy came at precisely the right time.
Amongst this field he's second in driving accuracy and the long-game certainly appeared to click last week, thanks to a range session after the first round. That's especially important at Valderrama, where Beef Johnston ranked first in both fairways and greens en route to his breakthrough at this level.
Kieffer hasn't managed to shed his own maiden tag but in a field which isn't as good as the event perhaps deserves behind the big two, he looks a solid each-way bet.
It's very difficult to retain faith in players who haven't performed quite as expected, but the value in doing so was in evidence again last week. I'd put up Kiradech Aphibarnrat in his previous start plus two of the first five home in the CIMB Classic and knowing when to forgive and forget can be extremely lucrative.
Hopefully that's the case with Ricardo Gouveia this week, after he both started and finished well in Italy but struggled on Friday and Saturday.
As mentioned in that preview, Gouveia has turned a corner of late, triggered by a stunning weekend run on home soil in the Portugal Masters, and he's now right on the edge of the top 100 in the Race To Dubai.
Year in, year out we see someone make a late run for a card and last week's hero was Nino Bertasio, who produced surely the round of his career on Sunday to retain his playing rights for next season.
Three-time Challenge Tour winner Gouveia is certainly classy enough to perform under this intense pressure and at his best his straight-hitting game is ideal for Valderrama.
We saw evidence of that last year, when he finished just inside the top 40 having ranked sixth for greens hit. The five players who ranked above him all finished in the top six overall, emphasising the importance of setting up birdie chances and removing stress as often as possible.
Hopefully, a similar ball-striking performance will this time see Gouveia convert some chances and if that's the case, he could go very well at 150/1.
Interestingly, he's actually won at Valderrama before and it'll be two years since that victory on Tuesday. Granted, it was a 36-hole pro-am but a lucrative one in which he saw off Jorge Campillo by four shots. He's also won a stage of Q School in Spain and will feel right at home on a course which suits.
Morning prep @valderramamasters course looking immaculate as always 👌 pic.twitter.com/iv6uzRB4ed
— Ricardo Melo Gouveia (@MelinhoGolf) October 17, 2017
Richard Bland was in front in the Spanish Open last May deep into round three, before an ugly shank ruined his chance of a breakthrough. He could go well having put together some eye-catching bursts recently, and it's interesting that his sole professional win came in the final event of the Challenge Tour season many moons ago and on a straight-hitter's course.
Campillo's top-10 record in Spain is significantly better than it is anywhere else while Nacho Elvira won the same pro-am as Gouveia here early this summer, when playing partner Sir Clive Woodward was most taken with his game. Both Spaniards look capable of winning on the European Tour, particularly Elvira, but it would be something special to do so for the first time at such a historic venue.
Instead, the solid one for me from those at least close to the front of the market is Gregory Bourdy.
This tenacious Frenchman knows how to take a chance when it presents itself and won in Mallorca 10 years ago, the first of four European Tour titles.
Last spring he finished 19th here despite a third-round 81 and was one of just five players to break 70 on a demanding final day, enhancing a strong record in Spain which shows five finishes of T21 or better from his last six visits.
Bourdy has twice led the Spanish Open at halfway and, as with Kieffer, has therefore returned to form at just the right time having struck it well in the British Masters before a top-five finish in the Dunhill Links.
Last week saw him climb to 30th, alongside Garcia, after a seven-under-par weekend and as one of the most accurate players in the field, he can be fancied to go really well and perhaps even seal a place at the DP World Tour Championship from his current perch of 58th in the Race To Dubai.
I mentioned ahead of the Italian Open the possibility that Alejandro Canizares strikes form to hold onto his card at the 11th hour and he's halfway there following a strong performance, but his price has crashed as a result and not even an exemplary record at Valderrama can convince me that there's any juice left in it.
David Howell played what he called his best round of 2017 on Sunday and loves it here, which is enough to make 300/1 interesting, while fellow veteran Steve Webster is just perfect for this course and has popped up at a big price already this year, finishing third in Denmark.
However, I'll head to the other end of the age scale and back Aaron Rai to match Johnston's heroics of last spring.
Rai has been one of the breakout stars of 2017, winning three Challenge Tour events to earn rapid promotion to the European Tour where he's already bagged a first top-10 finish to go with his first major appearance in the US Open.
He returned to form last time to finish 25th in the Dunhill Links and, given that he tops the accuracy charts among this field (admittedly via limited starts), that makes him interesting on a first visit to Spain since he won at La Cala, just an hour up the coast from this week's venue.
Finally, it's worth chancing Mikko Korhonen on his course debut.
The Finn is something of a journeyman, who still seeks his first European Tour victory at the age of 37, but having produced the best performances of his career over the last 12 months there are signs he might be ready to take that next step.
Spain is a fine place for him to do so, as he did win Qualifying School at the demanding PGA Catalunya in 2014 and has only missed one cut in 13 visits to the country.
At 94th in the Race To Dubai, he still needs to bag a decent cheque here to be certain to avoid a return to Q School and I can see him taking to a venue which on the face of it plays to his strengths.
Korhonen's compatriot Tapio Pulkkanen won on the Challenge Tour in September and having caught the eye himself with three fine rounds in the British Masters following two in Portugal, Korhonen can contend at a big each-way price.
Recommended bets: Andalucia Masters
Posted at 2050 BST on 16/10/17.