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Free betting tips: Ben Coley's Alfred Dunhill Links preview
Our golf expert Ben Coley is backing two former champions plus a 500/1 shot in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
Rory McIlroy is a worthy and warm favourite for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, his final opportunity to end a frustrating season on a high note.
The four-time major champion provided a timely reminder of his effortless brilliance in chasing home the excellent Paul Dunne last week, despite playing modest golf for the first 36 holes and missing some chances over the final 18, and if building on that will take all the beating.
McIlroy has been looking forward to playing alongside his dad in this unique pro-am event and, having twice been runner-up before, much may depend on whether he can get through a difficult day at Carnoustie unscathed.
And there's the rub. Last week's effort came courtesy of the sort of soft, relatively benign conditions under which he thrives and he may not get that courtesy here. Links golf is notoriously unpredictable, as McIlroy found out at St Andrews in the 2010 Open, and with a 1000/1 winner just three years ago it must make sense to look beyond the favourite.
While attracting a strong field and offering a huge purse, one thing which is evident about the Dunhill Links is that it is most certainly not for everyone. Many of those in attendance simply can't afford to turn down the opportunity or say no to a sponsor, yet time and again fail to get competitive, put off their stride by six hours alongside Shane Warne. They have my every sympathy.
Others, however, absolutely love it and that's certainly the case with some of the key dangers to Rory. Tommy Fleetwood, for instance, has three top-fives in six attempts and will be a huge factor if returning to his summer peak following the birth of his first child, while Shane Lowry must also fancy his chances having struck the ball beautifully of late and is surely the man most likely to play well.
I wanted to put up Lowry, especially with bad weather forecast, but I can't at 20/1. For all his reputation as an elite player, for all the talent which runs through a pair of truly magic hands, he does have just three European Tour wins to his name, one of which came as an amateur way back in 2009 and another in the United States.
In essence he's won one of these rank-and-file events as a professional and when you compare that to Matt Fitzpatrick, a four-time winner over the last two years, it's not right that Lowry should find himself shorter in the market.
Granted, it's also a fair while since Martin Kaymer took a title of any description but this two-time major winner might just return to the winners' enclosure in an event he dearly loves.
The affable German was runner-up here in 2008 and won it on his next visit in 2010, and in actual fact there's been some form of encouragement in all bar one of his nine appearances in the Dunhill Links.
Last year, he finished sixth after a slow start at Carnoustie on the back of a disappointing Ryder Cup and, as so often has been the case, that was a performance powered by a return to his ball-striking best.
One year on, that long-game reliability has returned ahead of schedule. Kaymer led the accuracy charts in Denmark and nobody hit more greens than he did at Close House last week, where he was set back by the odd error around the greens which has so often been the case in recent years.
Here across three links courses, there's far less pressure on his short-game and, as at Pinehurst three summers ago, he can often elect putt from off the greens on those rare occasions an approach shot goes astray. It's a huge factor in his favour.
I also like the fact that Kaymer will be having just his 20th start of the season. He should be fresh and, with Ryder Cup qualification now open and the event heading to a course at which he's a former champion, he should be highly motivated.
"It's always one of those tournaments that you don't really want to miss out on," he said 12 months ago, and I believe Kaymer could be poised for a return to his best and another victory here.
Like Kaymer, Thorbjorn Olesen is searching for a second Dunhill Links title and he arrives in the sort of form which could see him repeat his 2015 success.
Although winless in 2017, for my money this has been the most solid season of Olesen's career and it's telling that his best effort came in the Open de France, where he was keen to impress compatriot Thomas Bjorn ahead of next year's Ryder Cup on the outskirts of Paris.
Olesen has been earmarked for the Ryder Cup for some time, but needed to find consistency to go with his unquestionable ability to take a winning chance. That is exactly what he's done, making nine cuts in succession since Wentworth. The last time he made nine cuts, he went on to win his next start in Perth.
Making cuts inspires confidence and after finishing 34th in Portugal, where he's never been particularly effective, Olesen will arrive in Scotland knowing that he now has his ideal conditions whatever the weather does.
He will also be inspired, having watched his friend and team-mate Lucas Bjerregaard finally break his duck in Portugal, and eager to get amongst it in the battle for Ryder Cup points.
With his last three wins having come in either October or November, this is an ideal time for the 27-year-old to prove how good he is under the gun and make a big step back towards the world's top 50, which is where he really needs to be if he is to secure a place on Bjorn's team next year.
While I'm obviously more than happy with the odds quoted about both of my strongest fancies, the player I think is absolutely the wrong price is Kiradech Aphibarnrat and he has to go in the staking plan as a result.
On the face of it, the Thai might not look an ideal type for links golf whatever the weather, but he was fourth on his one and only start in this event two years ago and has won the Paul Lawrie Match Play at Murcar, beating a former Dunhill Links winner in the final.
That fourth place here two years ago is made all the more meritorious by the fact that Aphibarnrat started with a round of 75 at Carnoustie in difficult conditions. He was in fact the only player in the entire field to shoot 75 during the course of the first three rounds yet still manage to make the Saturday cut, so to finish in the frame was a remarkable effort.
It's just three starts since he should have won the KLM Open and after an understandable missed cut one week later, he was back on the bike with ninth place last week - once again confirming that he plays well under the cool autumnal conditions of the UK.
Throughout the British Masters, the KLM and the preceding European Masters, Aphibarnrat has struck the ball superbly well and one of the most aggressive players on the circuit seems sure to make plenty of birdies if exuding long-game control once more.
The hope is he can keep those ruinous errors off the scorecard and if so, a fourth European Tour title is well within his compass.
Of those at bigger prices, Callum Shinkwin is interesting if not haunted by a return to Scotland, where he should have won the Scottish Open in mid-summer, while Canada's Austin Connelly has shown what he can do under links conditions and will have no complaints should the wind blow.
Stephen Gallacher has shown the odd sign of encouragement including last weekend, Jamie Donaldson likewise, and Matthew Southgate's best form is chiefly under the sort of conditions expected come Thursday's tee-off.
All are respected, but Florian Fritsch appeals as a more reliable option at a similar price.
This German does incredibly well to exist as a professional golfer, given that he will not set foot on a plane, and is sure therefore to enjoy the short drive north from last week's host venue for the British Masters, just outside of Newcastle.
As he has done previously, Fritsch stepped up a gear in that valuable Rolex Series event knowing that every penny counts in his bid to maintain status on the European Tour. A cheque for €143,325 there more than doubled his season's earnings and vaulted Fritsch to 114th on the Race To Dubai - one more solid week away from the top 100 or making the top 10 in the new 'access list' designed for players of his status.
There's no place better for Fritsch to top up the fund and secure that card than St Andrews and the Dunhill Links. Two years ago he finished 19th on debut, overcome with nerves late on knowing that a card was on the line, and last year he finished better for seventh which saw him end the season at 101st on the Race To Dubai.
He actually won the team event in 2015 alongside hero Michael Ballack and there's some history in terms of winning both team and individual titles - it's been done by four players, two of whom managed it in separate years. Certainly, the atmosphere of the whole event suits this low-key, affable character and he should go well.
I'm always particularly interested in players crossing over from the PGA Tour who might find this effective step down in grade triggers an improved performance.
Andres Romero won the BMW International Open earlier this year having shown just a flicker of promise in the US, where he's based, while it's no coincidence that Rory suddenly found his mojo against inferior opposition.
In this very event, mid-tier PGA Tour player Chris Stroud finished second despite arriving on a run of missed cuts two years ago and I just wonder whether the formerly classy Stuart Appleby could spring to life in a similar vein.
It's only a couple of months since Appleby finished fourth on the PGA Tour in modest company and while he struggled at the Web.com Tour Finals, that's surely factored into quotes of 500/1.
He has some past experience of St Andrews having finished 11th here in the Open Championship, the major he came so close to winning when second in 2002, while in just a handful of European Tour starts elsewhere he's gone well in Doha at the Qatar Masters - an event which so often points to Dunhill contenders.
An accurate driver who should keep out of trouble in the main, it's just possible that Appleby is rewarded for coming to Scotland in search of an opportunity by contending and at the price that's a chance I'm willing to take.
Finally, I'm leaning on that Doha link to back Jeunghun Wang at 150/1.
The Korean is already a three-time European Tour winner and he's not yet 23, making him far classier than many of those ahead of him in the betting and with way more potential, too.
It's been a bit of a struggle since he took the third of those titles in the Qatar Masters, where he saw off Dunhill Links specialist Joakim Lagergren in a play-off, but three cuts made in succession suggest the game is coming back around.
He broke 70 all four days at Close House, where aspects facets of his game appeared to be in good order as he made just seven bogeys all week, and might be one to relish this challenge on his debut in the event.
Recommended bets: Alfred Dunhill Links
Posted at 2000 BST on 02/10/17