Patrick Cantlay is right at the top of the list of best players without a major championship to their name, and Ben Coley reckons it's time for that to change.
Golf betting tips: Majors in 2023
5pts Patrick Cantlay to win a major at 7/1 (bet365 - minimum 5/1)
2pts Cantlay to finish in the top 20 of all four majors at 16/1 (bet365)
2pts e.w. Tony Finau to win the Open at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Sungjae Im to win the US PGA at 50/1 (Coral, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Aaron Wise to win the US Open at 80/1 (Sky Bet, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Cantlay can star in 2023
It's very reasonable to ask questions of PATRICK CANTLAY's record in majors, but those questions help to prop up the prices attached to the name of one of the sport's very best players – and I think he'll go close to winning at least one of them this year.
Since golf returned in the summer of 2020, Cantlay has established himself as arguably the leading PGA Tour player. In total he's played in 37 what you'd call standard PGA Tour events (i.e. non-majors, WGCs and The PLAYERS) and he's won six of them, with 14 further top-10 finishes to his name.
FedEx Cup champion in 2021 after fending off Jon Rahm, Cantlay is now firmly established inside the world's top five. Fourth at the time of writing, he's set to climb to third very soon and that's where he sits in the strokes-gained world rating now offered by the Official World Golf Ranking website and used to calculate points distribution.
All of this is to say that there are only three players I would have clearly in front of him currently: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. They're all 4/1 or shorter to win at least one major this year (McIlroy is 5/2) and I think it's a little absurd that Cantlay sits 14th in the market with bet365, who rate Cam Young and Matt Fitzpatrick among those more likely.
This is all because Young and Fitzpatrick contended for majors in 2022, whereas Cantlay did that only briefly at St Andrews. However, we really must remind ourselves that there are four of these events and they come in a three-month period. Drawing firm conclusions about players and their perceived suitability to them is fraught with danger, for all that it's fair to say Cantlay has been underwhelming.
Remember, before the 2022 PGA Championship, Justin Thomas had gone five years since his sole major, and so often failed to deliver what many had expected. Fitzpatrick hadn't had a sniff of winning a major before this year, and then he contended for one, and won the next. Viktor Hovland hadn't yet managed a top 10 before playing in the final group at St Andrews, where Cam Smith was the latest first-time winner.
Cantlay has hit the front on Masters Sunday, and I like the fact that he ended this year's set back on the front foot, with 14th in the US Open and eighth at St Andrews. They set him up perfectly for 2023 and with the US Open heading to LA Country Club, 30 miles from his childhood home, this could be the year that one of the game's best players put everything together.
Of course, we could just back him for the US Open at 22/1 generally and 25s in a place, or for all four majors individually at around the 25/1 mark. That way, there's potential to collect more than once and there were at least four players who threatened to win twice in 2022, even if one of them, Will Zalatoris, ended up with none.
But my view is that 7/1 with bet365 and the 6/1 with Sky Bet are more than sufficient to keep things simple, as is the general 11/2, while a smaller play on four top-20 finishes also appeals with ties thrown in for free.
The latter market also has Tony Finau listed at 25/1 with bet365 and 20/1 with BoyleSports. His top-20 strike-rate in majors currently stands at 50% and he's just behind Cantlay in the pecking order when it comes to potential first-time winners in 2023. However, as explained below, there's one major in particular I like him for.
The Masters
- When: April 6-9
- Where: Augusta National
You know the drill by now: wait until April, and you'll be able to take 10 or 12 places on each-way bets for the Masters, a tournament with a relatively small pool of potential champions. Typically it goes somewhat to the form book, so what sense is there in getting involved without these things in our favour?
There's one caveat to all of this, and it's that by betting now, punters have the chance to beat the market significantly. That was possible a year ago, with a bang in-form but as yet winless Scottie Scheffler priced at around the 40/1 mark. Four months and three victories later, he arrived at Augusta as one of the favourites and duly obliged.
If there's a Scheffler equivalent then it's Cameron Young, who now carries the mantle of the sport's best maiden and, like Scheffler before him, has contended for majors already. He even signed off in the mix for the Hero World Challenge, just as Scheffler had, and Viktor Hovland won both renewals for good measure. Might there be some kind of history repeated?
The trouble is that where Scheffler had positive Augusta experience to call upon, having played well in both 2020 and 2021 editions of the Masters, Young shot 77-77 on his debut there in April. And while a fine talent, do I envisage Young taking the world by storm and arriving at this year's tournament as the sport's best player? To be frank, no I don't.
Perhaps more likely is that Tom Kim does, and at 40/1 in places he's probably a slightly better bet. Already above Young in the rankings having given the American a head start in PGA Tour terms, Kim will have to defy the trend that says debutants don't win, but there's scope for him to go off at less than his current odds and I don't think anyone would be shocked were he to take another step up and contend for a major this year.
Kim's compatriot Sungjae Im, newly married and already an Augusta runner-up, is another of note. He's still flying under the radar somewhat and it's true that wins haven't arrived in a burst as yet, but that was the case with Cameron Smith prior to 2022 and I certainly believe Im has that kind of season in him.
Then there's Tony Finau, reborn as a prolific winner this year and a player with a fabulous record in majors, including at Augusta where he's yet to miss the cut in five starts, three of them top-10s. Based on the way he's played over the last six months he deserves to be shorter than the standout 33/1, and if any more silverware follows he'll be closer to the 20/1 mark and perhaps even a shade below it with so many places.
Those are the four options as I see them from towards the top of the betting, each capable of going really well, but none quite worthy of a bet at the time of writing.
For the more ambitious, there is an Augusta-proven member of the world's top 25 who is on offer at 150/1, and it's easy to make a good case for Brian Harman not only shortening, but playing well come the tournament itself.
I suspect a lot of people will be surprised by his world ranking but as I type, Harman is a place below Tommy Fleetwood, just ahead of the likes of Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley and Seamus Power. He's climbed to this position, one which guarantees him a Masters start, courtesy of three top-threes since August.
Winning has been a problem for the scrappy left-hander, his last title coming in 2017, but the way he ended the year that may well change soon. And there are certainly chances for him to impress enough to start closer to the 66/1 mark, especially in the weeks leading up to the Masters: he's gone really well at Sawgrass, Copperhead and in the Match Play before.
Harman's Augusta form reads MC-44-12-MC so perhaps describing him as 'Augusta-proven' is a stretch, but he bagged a sub-70 round under April conditions to sign off his second visit, and on his third was in the final group for round three before fading with a pair of weekend 74s.
A former US Open contender behind Brooks Koepka, Harman is well used to punching above his weight and while he admittedly lacks a bit of firepower, Augusta is more a second-shot course than it is a big-hitter course. That's the department which has propelled him up the rankings of late, along with a hot putter, and there's no reason he can't keep contending for titles in the coming months.
The one I did want to put up was Sahith Theegala, another Masters debutant. He signed off a breakout 2022 with victory in the QBE Shootout but it's his form prior to that pairs win that really suggests he'll kick on again in the coming months.
An Augusta qualifier courtesy of his top-30 FedEx Cup ranking (although he's inside the top 50 in the world, too), Theegala looks the type to really take to the course. He's long off the tee, might get away with the odd wild drive, and has a creativity about him which has seen him play much of his best stuff on tree-lined, classical courses.
Theegala's approach play could do with improving a shade if he's to prove himself truly elite, but he's shown enough in that regard especially when fifth at the Memorial, not the worst Augusta guide itself. His flare and his magic hands mark him down as one to be interested in, but only bet365 have priced him up so I can't recommend a bet.
PGA Championship
- When: May 18-21
- Where: Oak Hill
Of the four majors, the PGA Championship is the one which looks best for a bet – because it's the one which has the greatest scope to throw up something unexpected, at least until we know what the weather is going to do in Liverpool.
We were one good swing away from a 100/1 winner of the US PGA this year, Mito Pereira infamously collapsing to third place, and 150/1 Phil Mickelson won the previous edition, where Padraig Harrington and Harry Higgs both placed. Jimmy Walker, Keegan Bradley, YE Yang... the list of winners that were by no means obvious is pretty long, and that's without considering the course.
Oak Hill returns for the first time since 2013, when Jason Dufner beat Jim Furyk, with Henrik Stenson third. Two of this trio ranked in the top 10 for fairways that year and all three are what you might call 'proper, old-school ball-strikers', who surgically dismantle courses rather than blowing them to pieces with sheer force.
Look further down that leaderboard and you'll see not just David Toms, Zach Johnson and Graeme McDowell, but Roberto Castro, Boo Weekley and Michael Thompson. These are rank-and-file PGA Tour players who, Weekley perhaps aside, have never threatened to be world-class, but have always been accurate, fairway-finding golfers.
Such a formula is rare but while time changes things and there have been alterations to the course, this is a Donald Ross layout built to play that way. It's pretty tight, still tree-lined despite some removal work, and very much classical. I suspect it'll throw up a varied leaderboard where, for once, power gives way to accuracy, or at least doesn't close the door to it.
Of the elite players, it could suit Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, defending champ Justin Thomas, and SUNGJAE IM more than most, and I'm more than happy to get the latter on-side at 40 and 50/1.
He's got a fine record at the Ross-designed Sedgefield, where Stenson has subsequently won, and having been runner-up three times in his last 10 starts looks the kind of player who's laid the foundations for a big 2023.
Compatriot Yang won his major in this and it's generally a good one for first-time winners, with Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Morikawa all having made their breakthroughs in it. Im is definitely good enough to join that list.
I did consider him to win any of the four at 18/1, bet365 again pricing a borderline elite golfer among inferior ones, but there's no denying a west coast US Open isn't ideal. For that reason I'll stick to the US PGA, with the Masters the other obvious opportunity given a pair of top-10s at Augusta.
Recent winner Russell Henley has to be worth a glance at 125/1 as does Harman at slightly bigger, with Corey Conners and Si Woo Kim also on the radar along with Billy Horschel, who almost made the staking plan.
Well established inside the world's top 20, Horschel made his Presidents Cup debut in September and I just wonder whether he'll use that as a springboard to challenge in majors again. So far the closest he's come was in 2013, when fourth in the US Open, but he has top-25s in all four after signing off this year with 21st in the Open.
A winner of some big events worldwide, including the TOUR Championship, the BMW PGA and the WGC-Match Play, he's an accurate driver who, like Im, has an excellent record at Sedgefield. He also played well in the 2014 US Open held at the Ross-designed Pinehurst and I suspect the course could be a better fit than his missed cut the previous autumn suggests.
That was in fact the last time he missed the cut in this event and while hardly one to go overboard with, he does make some appeal at the odds. There's also a good chance he arrives in-form given a strong record at Harbour Town and in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, after which he might just have to take in the Byron Nelson having been a rare visitor to Quail Hollow down the years.
Either way, an in-form Horschel has to be shorter and could feasibly be half his current odds, at a course I do believe he'll relish. I'd rather gather more evidence and more places, but those looking for a three-figure dart should consider a player who is capable of winning a major.
US Open
- When: June 15-18
- Where: Los Angeles Country Club
The US Open returns to California just four years on from Gary Woodland's win at Pebble Beach, but this time we're at Los Angeles Country Club, which is a short drive across town from Riviera.
No doubt the Californians among the game's elite will be licking their lips – Collin Morikawa has played two home-state majors and won one of them, while Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele will also be popular options – and it was a version of home comfort that helped Matt Fitzpatrick to his major breakthrough at Brookline.
In recent years, the US Open has become a bit of a power contest, famously so at Winged Foot but either side of that, too. Fitzpatrick's increased power off the tee was a huge factor in his win, and before him came Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson.
That ought to remain the case here. The North Course at LA Country Club is long, the rough will be thick, and it will be very difficult for shorter hitters to compete.
One Californian I'm yet to mention is Will Zalatoris and, along with Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Champ and Maverick McNealy, he played the Walker Cup here in 2017. Zalatoris is a 25/1 chance and having won since he last played in a major, this looks an obvious opportunity for a player who could've won three of them already.
McNealy might be an interesting one if you can get a price, as another Californian with what you'd think might be a US Open game, but he's got work to do to qualify whereas AARON WISE has his place in the field locked up.
Long off the tee and a fabulous ball-striker who is at his best under tough conditions, despite his sole PGA Tour win having come in a shootout, Wise was one of the best players who didn't manage a victory in 2022, and with the broom putter working wonders, he should keep on climbing the rankings.
What influence did playing alongside a red-hot Rory McIlroy last week at Congaree have on Aaron Wise? Aaron unpacks it with Chantel McCabe:
— SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio (@SiriusXMPGATOUR) October 27, 2022
Hear more great interviews every Wednesday from 6-8p ET on All Square!
@aaronwise_ | @McIlroyRory | @chantel_mccabe | #AllSquare pic.twitter.com/p8gLyIYndI
He hits greens for fun and having been raised in California, he's one I could see popping up as a dark horse if he does continue to contend at the thick end of tournaments. He ought to have chances to win one, too, with some of his favourite stops including the Honda Classic and the Wells Fargo, again where par means something as it always does in a US Open.
Wise might not be a name synonymous with contending in majors but dig a little deeper into his form book and you'll see that he's sat fourth and third at halfway in the last two US Opens he's played in, one of them at Pebble Beach before a good effort last summer at Brookline. It seems the right major for him and 80/1 has the potential to shorten.
The Open Championship
- When: July 20-23
- Where: Royal Liverpool
The market for the Open Championship quite rightly differs from the other three majors. Here, points are trimmed off the prices of links specialists, virtually anyone from the UK and Ireland, and some veterans who might find that this is their best chance for a final shot at major glory.
Value therefore lies with the best golfers, who still tend to boss the event. Yes, come July I'll be looking to find an edge somewhere down the betting with the help perhaps of the weather, but in the here and now we should focus on those whose prices suggest a vulnerability which the form book does not.
TONY FINAU is perhaps the best example. He's 40/1 with two firms, which is bigger than you'll get about Tommy Fleetwood, and puts Finau on a par with Tyrrell Hatton. Somehow, he's below Bryson DeChambeau with most bookmakers, despite currently being a better player with a place in the field guaranteed.
Finau also boasts a very good Open record, with a worst of 28th from six tries. Given the variables this championship brings, that tells you he not only relishes the challenge, but he has the shots required to conquer a variety of courses, from St Andrews over to Troon and across the sea to Portrush.
Finau started three of the 2022 majors in the 40-50/1 region, including the Open, but when he arrived in-form for the US Open, he was closer to 28/1. Given that he's since won three times, versus two wins in his entire PGA Tour career prior to St Andrews, it's fair to suggest that the market will pay him maximum respect and that sub-20/1 odds are perfectly possible.
Anything bigger than 28/1 looks worth taking about one of the sport's most in-form players, with an outstanding majors record and now, at last, plenty silverware to show for his efforts on the PGA Tour. If he wins again before July and turns up in decent form, then it will be a surprise if you can take anything close to the prices now on offer.
Sungjae Im also makes some appeal at 66/1, as a former Honda Classic winner who made the cut on his delayed Open return at St Andrews but putted terribly. His performance at Royal Melbourne in the 2019 Presidents Cup is another small clue that he has a big Open performance in him and he's a big price on form and ability.
The Honda Classic, which Shane Lowry ought to have won in the spring, is an excellent guide to majors as a rule, and this one in particular. Padraig Harrington, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy and Ernie Els are among its past winners, Sergio Garcia runner-up to Scott, and invariably you have to play well in the wind to contend there.
Combine that with his runner-up finish in last summer's Scottish Open, and the improving Kurt Kitayama would be my pick of the outsiders. Now up inside the world's top 50 and assured of his place in the field, Kitayama's two DP World Tour wins also came by the sea while his runner-up finish in the CJ Cup came on a firm, fast course.
Throw in a top-10 finish in Qatar, generally windy and where Open champions have thrived, plus form at Le Golf National and another seaside top-five in Mexico, and there's a lot to like at 200/1.
Granted there's no guarantee he starts the event shorter, but at least we know he has a liking for The Renaissance and another big performance in the Scottish Open would only add to a nice profile for this.
Posted at 1710 GMT on 31/12/22
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