Spanish Grand Prix betting tips: F1 preview, picks and analysis
F1 heads to Spain this weekend, where our expert is keen to back Max Verstappen to return to his dominant best.
Formula One betting tops: Spanish Grand Prix
3pts Max Verstappen pole, winner, fastest lap treble at 4/1 (William Hill)
3pts Carlos Sainz to finish on the podium at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
Formula One returns to a conventional race track this weekend for the 2024 Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona. Circuit de Barcelona Catalunya is the most aerodynamically demanding circuit on the calendar and Red Bull can prove they are still the strongest all round car, despite not having everything their own way in the past four rounds.
Max Verstappen hat-trick
Circuit de Barcelona Catalunya had historically been the host of F1 pre-season testing until the move to Bahrain to coincide with the season opener. Barcelona is a perfect track for testing cars and therefore for exposing weaknesses. To master this track you need strong high, medium and low-speed corner performance and to still be competitive on the straight. It is the perfect riddle for Adrian Newey's mind to conquer.
The best all round car usually wins in Barcelona. Since 2014, each winning constructor in Barcelona went on to win the constructors' championship with the exception of 2016, where MAX VERSTAPPEN won here in his first ever race for Red Bull, taking advantage of a Mercedes crash on lap 1.
The last four races have exposed Red Bull as they have had to raise the ride height and compromise performance. This won't be an issue here and we may see Verstappen return to his dominant early-season levels.
The last time we were at a conventional circuit, Verstappen was a general 1/12 shot; this week he is 1/2. The best way to take advantage of this is to back the Dutchman for a hat-trick (to get pole, win the race and bag the fastest lap). He managed this twice already this season on the conventional circuits of Bahrain and Suzuka and he has a great chance to complete a hat-trick of hat-tricks.
Carlos Sainz podium
Canada was a write-off for Ferrari with both cars struggling in qualifying and the race. I expect that to be a one-off and them to be fighting at the front once again this weekend.
CARLOS SAINZ has not had the upper hand in the Ferrari teammate battle in the last four races, which all demanded a unique driving style. With the return to normality this weekend, Sainz can recapture his early-season form and challenge his teammate once again.
Sainz has never been on an F1 podium in his home country and will be desperate to change that in what will be his last chance to do so for the foreseeable future.
He should have the edge over many of his podium rivals here. Despite a strong performance from Mercedes last time out in Canada, this track should expose their weaknesses. An out-of-form Sergio Perez is in a car which brings him into podium contention but he carries in a three-place grid penalty. Oscar Piastri is in a car that should go well around this track but his tyre management weaknesses will be exposed over the race distance around this track.
I expect Sainz to join Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris in the battle form the podium places behind Verstappen and at 4/1, he's a value bet.
Other drivers' chances
Sergio Perez
Seriously out of form at the moment. Poor qualifying here last year and starting on the back foot with his three-place grid penalty. This track will prove where he is in relation to Verstappen.
Lando Norris
His car has proved to be able to challenge Red Bull when they are not at their best. This weekend will test whether they can challenge them on all circuits.
George Russell
Was disappointed with a P3 in Canada but chances are that was a one-off, and they will be exposed on this layout.
Yuki Tsunoda
VCARB are bringing their most significant upgrade of the season to this track. Don't be surprised to see him challenging Alonso on pace.
Kevin Magnussen
Haas has proved to be competitive on conventional circuits so far this season. They look to be ahead of Williams, Alpine and Sauber for the moment and need to capitalise before others catch up to them. Will be in the mix for the top 12 and hoping to sneak a point. His future F1 career needs it.
Posted at 1040 BST on 20/06/24
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