Louis Bollard takes an early look at this weekend's Spanish Grand Prix, where Lance Stroll is fancied to reward support.
As part of our new F1 preview package, Louis will return on Saturday with a post-qualifying look at the markets. Get more from Louis at f1tipster.com.
Formula One betting tips: Spanish Grand Prix
2.5pts Lance Stroll without top 7 at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Alpine to have the fastest lap at 28/1 (bet365)
The F1 circus makes the short trip from Monaco to Barcelona this weekend. There is no circuit on the calendar that drivers know better than Catalunya. This is because this track has been used for testing the cars in recent years.
The reason this track is used for testing is because it tests all aspects of the car. It's a mix of high-speed, medium speed and low speed corners. The Barcelona track exposes weaknesses in F1 cars, unlike Monaco and Baku where downforce configurations can mask weaknesses, and Barcelona will expose these.
The race has a reputation for being boring in recent years but overtaking opportunities will increase this year with the updates F1 have made by removing the final chicane.
Lance Stroll without top 7
It's no secret that LANCE STROLL has struggled in the last two races but I'm willing to forgive him for both of these. In Miami, poor tire choice in qualifying ruined his weekend, and in Monaco he ran over Lando Norris’ debris in qualifying and had a race to forget after contact on lap 1. The return to a conventional track well not only suit Lance Stroll but will also separate the Aston Martin from the weaker teams in the field.
As Barcelona tests all aspects of car performance, the Aston Martin should be able to demonstrate its superiority over the bottom six teams easily. The Aston Martin is the kindest on its tires which will be a major factor as this track is one of the toughest on tires on the calendar.
While it will be tougher than it was in Monaco for Alonso to fight for victory here, the team will expect both cars to be comfortably inside the top 8 and ahead of every car that isn't a Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes at a minimum. The form lines to follow are the Bahrain and Australian Grand Prix where Stroll was in another class to his competition in this market.
I see value at 6/4 for Stroll to beat the bottom six teams come the end of Sunday.
Seat fit smiles from @lance_stroll. 😄#MonacoGP pic.twitter.com/kkrzDfCSCt
— Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant F1 Team (@AstonMartinF1) May 25, 2023
Fastest Race Lap: Alpine
ALPINE took a massive step forward in Monaco with Ocon achieving a podium. Given the public criticism of both the team and drivers from Alpine CEO Laurent Rossi, a strong weekend was much needed. Alpine technical director Alan Permane has said that in Barcelona they intend to fight with Ferrari and be ahead of Mercedes. This is very ambitious considering Barcelona is a very different track to Monaco but it shows that the team are confident of competing for strong points positions.
Alpine may find themselves in a lonely position come the end of the race on Sunday. They may be one of the only teams that will have the ability to pit for fresh tires on the penultimate lap to go for the fastest lap extra point. Even if they exceed these expectations and are running in the top six they still may have the chance to go for a fastest lap.
Alpine and Mercedes have similar chances of achieving the fastest lap this weekend, yet one is 28/1 and the other is 7/1. I recommend taking the 28/1 on Alpine getting the fastest race lap.
How will the other big names fare?
Max Verstappen: Will be hoping for an easy weekend. Track suits more than previous three races. Only worry is his teammate putting in a strong performance. Should win.
Sergio Perez: Anything worse than 2nd would be considered a poor weekend. Will be tough to match teammate. Overtaking should be easy here to recover if he makes a third mistake in qualifying.
Fernando Alonso: Best chance of a home win in 10 years. Unfortunately, it’s a much tougher task than Monte Carlo. Car is very kind on tires and may up for an alternative strategy to the Red Bulls. Will be hopeful of a sixth podium of the season. Will need luck to win.
Carlos Sainz: Matched his teammate for pace Monaco. Car upgrades coming this weekend. Tough to see them challenging for a podium on pace yet.
Lewis Hamilton: He’s happy with the change in philosophy of the car. Upgrades will make a bigger impact here than in Monaco. Could be in for a strong weekend.
When does the Spanish Grand Prix start and what TV channel is it on?
The Spanish Grand Prix will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the United Kingdom - and ESPN in the United States.
Friday June 2
- Practice One: 1230 BST
- Practice Two: 1600 BST
Saturday, June 3
- Practice Three: 1130 BST
- Qualifying: 1500 BST
Sunday, June 4
- Monaco Grand Prix race: 1400 BST
Posted at 1730 on 31/05/23
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TV Schedule Live on Sky Sports F1 14:00 Sunday 4th of June
