Monaco Grand Prix betting tips: F1 preview, picks and analysis ahead of the Monte Carlo showpiece

Formula One betting tops: Monaco Grand Prix

3pts e.w. Charles Leclerc to win at 5/1 (bet365, 1/5, 1,2,3)

5pt Charles Leclerc to win two or more races this season at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt Yuki Tsunoda Top 6 finish at 10/1 (General)

1pt Nico Hulkenberg Top 6 finish at 14/1 (General)

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Despite a lacklustre race last time out, we were treated to a true battle for the lead in the final few laps which has whet the appetite for the remaining 17 races of the season. This week we go to Monaco, for the 81st Monaco Grand Prix.

In recent years, the Monaco Grand Prix has been marmite to F1 fans. With the cars getting bigger, overtaking around these famous streets has been at a premium in the past decade. However, it remains one of my favorite tracks on the calendar. It is the most thrilling qualifying track due to how much your starting position means on Sunday and how close drivers will get to the walls to squeeze every last millisecond of performance (see Verstappen's 2023 pole lap).

I'm siding with destiny this weekend and backing home-hero CHARLES LECLERC to get his first home win in the principality. The Ferrari has been suited to these streets for the past few seasons with Leclerc qualifying on pole here in 2021 and 2022 . In pure Leclerc and Ferrari fashion, neither of these poles were converted to wins due to a gearbox issue on the the warm up in 2021 and a typical Ferrari strategy blunder in 2022. Positively, neither of these failed pole conversions were due to a pace issue or driver error.

The Ferrari engine has been key to this Monaco pace, with excellent performance on the exit of slow speed corners we should see this continue this weekend.

The Red Bull has proved vulnerable already this season, and Max Verstappen has come out saying he believes they are struggling on bumpy tracks when they must raise the ride height. Monaco is one of the bumpiest tracks on the calendar so we may see the Red Bull off song again this weekend.

Leclerc looks to have the upper hand in the teammate battle over the past two races, and has a superior Monaco record to Sainz. I will be backing the fairytale story of Leclerc winning Monaco.

CLICK HERE to back Leclerc with Sky Bet

Take Two For Top Six

As mentioned above, Saturday qualifying is so important here and a car that does well on Saturday has a strong chance of holding faster cars behind on the Sunday. For example last year Esteban Ocon qualified P4 and manages to finish on the podium, in an Alpine.

I will be backing two cars who have impressed over on lap this season to make it into the top 6. YUKI TSUNODA has a 71% strike rate of making it into Q3 this season, and managed a P7 start in Imola last time out.

CLICK HERE to back Tsunoda to finish in the top six with Sky Bet

NICO HULKENBERG has a 57% Q3 strike rate in a car that has always loved Saturdays. Both drivers are available at 10/1 and 14/1 respectively. Hulkenberg is as big as 425/1 to make it to the podium, a repeat of what Ocon achieved last year in a car of similar relative ability.

CLICK HERE to back Hulkenberg to finish in the top six with Sky Bet

Antepost Addition

The last two races have highlighted weaknesses in the Red Bull and have heightened fans hopes for a closer season than what was expected. Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz have already taken advantage with one win each but I will taking CHARLES LECLERC to win two or more races this season. With 17 races left in the season, and tracks yet to come which have always suited Leclerc's Ferrari such as Monaco, Baku and Singapore this is value, even if the Monagasque is beaten this weekend.

Other Drivers Chances

Max Verstappen

Although winning last time out, the Red Bull was exposed. He needed a slipstream to get pole and likely wouldn't have won the race if he didn't start there. This weekend is unique and is reflected in his price.

Sergio Perez

Has a love/hate relationship with these streets. Won here in 2022 but crashed out in qualifying last year and revealed Red Bull's floor design secrets to the world. Will struggle more than his teammate if the Red Bull isn't firing straight away.

Lando Norris

Will be over the moon with his cars upgrades. This will be his best chance of a Monaco win yet, but slow speed corners have always b a n a weakness or this car. Let's see if these upgrades have addressed this.

Oscar Piastri

Looks to be on a par with his teammate over one lap, or even on a short race distance. Is still struggling with tyre wear but that won't be an issue here. A strong qualifying and this is a track he could win at.

Lewis Hamilton

Has won here three times but cars record has not been great here. Even during the Mercedes dominance, it was a track they underperformed on compared to others.

Fernando Alonso

Possibly his worst ever F1 weekend last time out. Finished 2nd here last year and may have won with a better strategy. Hard to see any win challenging form from this team at present.

Posted at 1020 BST on 22/05/24

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