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Las Vegas Grand Prix betting tips: F1 preview, picks and analysis
Louis Bollard previews the Las Vegas Grand Prix, where two longshots appeal along with a bet in the race winner market.
Formula One betting tips: Las Vegas Grand Prix
2pts e.w. Carlos Sainz to win the Las Vegas Grand Prix at 6/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1.5pts Sauber to record the fastest pitstop at 22/1 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt Sergio Perez to finish on the podium at 20/1 (William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes)
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After another three-week hiatus, Formula One returns for the the glitz and glamour of the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix. This race did not disappoint last year and the organisers will be desperate for another thriller to combat some negative media coverage surrounding the event.
Las Vegas has brought a unique challenge to the Formula One calendar with low temperatures and low grip surface. This layout suited Ferrari last year and I will be backing them to repeat in what is a much stronger package 12 months down the line.
CARLOS SAINZ made his first experience of the Las Vegas circuit a memorable one.
Sainz just missed out on pole position here last year by 0.043 seconds to his teammate. He was then demoted 10 places for a penalty incurred because of a manhole getting shot up through his engine and was last exiting turn one after spinning at the first corner.
Despite these setbacks combined with misfortune throughout the race, he managed to recover to P6. His teammate went on to battle for the win showing the pace was in the car.
Ferrari's strongest track layout is still street circuits given the way the engine displaces power excellently in short bursts and the car copes well with the bumps. I therefore expect them to return to form after a difficult Brazil GP where the long sweeping corners exacerbated their weaknesses.
Prior to that, Ferrari had taken consecutive wins in Texas and Mexico City with Sainz comfortably getting the better of his teammate in the latter. The discrepancy in price between Sainz and the other favourites is too big so I will be backing the Spaniard for one more win in scarlet red.
Checo's last chance
Given SERGIO PEREZ's recent results, you would be forgiven for writing him off for this weekend. However, between his Baku performance (a similar track to Las Vegas) and his performance at this venue in 2023 I am willing to chance him for a resurgence given the 20/1 on offer for a podium finish.
Things looked to be going great for Perez throughout the Baku weekend, as he was easily the best Red Bull driver and had a chance to win the race until being taken out by Sainz on the penultimate lap while running on the podium.
His drive at this venue last year was up there with his best in a Red Bull. Having suffered front wing damage at the end of lap one and undergoing a nose change which relegated him to the back of the field, he managed to get himself back into contention for not only the podiu but the win as he was leading with only 16 laps remaining.
Baku has always been a speciality track that Checo has thrived around and there are enough similarities with Las Vegas to take a punt he can find his mojo this weekend.
There's not much positive to say about SAUBER's season or how they've handled their treatment of their drivers.
The team will be finishing the season on 0 points with Valtteri Bottas finishing 23rd in a 20-man championship, but Sauber are currently excelling in one area: pitstops.
Sauber have managed to achieve the fastest pitstop at two of the last five GPs, in Baku and last time out in Brazil. They clearly have been focusing on this area, rather than car performance throughout the season. With a 40% strike-rate in the last five, the 22/1 available looks far too big.
Other notes
Max Verstappen
High chance he will secure the championship this weekend. Excellent drive here last year but only narrowly beat Leclerc. Doesn't have the benefit of car performance this year as he did last year. Will want the acclaim of winning the championship in Las Vegas rather than in Qatar, so may only be focused on Norris.
Lando Norris
Awful weekend here last year which resulted in a driver error shunt into the barriers. Can't back him at the price. Will be more suited to the Qatar track than here.
Alpine
Phenomenal weekend here last year, with both cars on for a top-six finish before battery issues for Gasly. Tough decision to leave out of the staking plan but they really got the setup right for this layout in 2023 and could do so again.
Posted at 1440 GMT on 21/11/24
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