Louis Bollard looks ahead to the Brazilian Grand Prix, where a fascinating battle for both championships will continue, but where betting value lies elsewhere.
Formula One betting tips: Brazilian Grand Prix
1pt Liam Lawson to finish in the points at 3/1 (General)
1pt Pierre Gasly to finish in the points at 11/2 (General)
0.5pt Lawson and Gasly double points finish at 25/1 (bet365)
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Formula One travels down to South America for the final leg of a triple header at the 2024 Brazilian Grand Prix. Red Bull's failed upgrades and Ferrari's quick rise have blown both championships wide open. Lando Norris needs an 11-point gain each race weekend on Max Verstappen to snatch the drivers' title, while Ferrari have arrived on the scene of the Constructors' Championship and are now just 2/1.
Interlagos has always been a fan favourite track because of a layout the allows for close racing, a high chance of safety cars and changeable weather conditions. All of which are in play this weekend with there being a 70% chance of thunderstorms for race time on Sunday.
The unpredictability of the Sao Paulo track can benefit the drivers on the fringes of points. There are two such drivers who are overpriced for a points finish who will be poised to take advantage should any top 10 spots open up, LIAM LAWSON and PIERRE GASLY.
Lawson returned to Formula One with a stellar performance in Texas, having started at the back of the grid and scoring points after a sublime drive. Last time out in Mexico he fell victim in qualifying to his teammate's crash after looking like he would have a top 10 start.
In the race he was on for a run at the points before getting too involved in a tussle with Sergio Perez, a battle which meant more than just position. Haas look at to have the performance over VCARB but at 3/1 I'm willing to give Lawson another chance this weekend.
Alpine's recent upgrades have clawed some performance back that we saw flashes of earlier in the season. Gasly has had two strong races in Texas and Mexico having qualified in the top 10 on both occasions, and being rewarded with a points finish last time out.
Gasly is more comfortable with the car now and can take advantage of any underperforming cars ahead of him and achieve consecutive points finishes.
Other drivers' chances
Max Verstappen
Received the harshest penalty for his driving standards to date last time out, but has made clear he won't change his standards. Has a five-place penalty this weekend for an engine change so doesn't look like he will have the chance to battle Norris.
Lando Norris
Excellent opportunity to take points off Verstappen this weekend. Is very closely matched with the Ferraris but has a lot more to lose. Expect him to be right there on pace but back out of risky moves.
Charles Leclerc
Car is working sublimely and he still has a (very outside) chance at the Drivers' Championship. Didn't get the best out of the car last weekend having sit out FP1. Could return to being the lead Ferrari.
Carlos Sainz
One of his greatest weekends last time out. Has nothing to lose and will risk it all to take another win as he knows he may never get the chance again after this season.
Posted at 1320 GMT on 01/11/24
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