F1 expert Louis Bollard looks at the state of play following qualifying for the Australian Grand Prix, where Max Verstappen is a 1/6 race favourite.
It was all looking very competitive at the top of order throughout practice, Q1 and Q2 in Australia, until Max Verstappen restored order to take pole and start the race 1/6 favourite.
The Red Bull has struggled with understeer and tyre graining this weekend which will give Ferrari a glimmer of hope, but they made some external help if they want to fight for the lead and Melbourne is just the track that can provide that help.
There is a high tendency for safety cars and red flag in this gravel-filled street circuit with last year's being the prime example with the red flag being waved three times. With the chance of this impacting team strategies, which seems to be what separates all cars outside the top five teams on a Sunday, I will be backing GUANYU ZHOU for points from the pitlane.
The Saubers have shown decent race pace so far this season, with Zhou running strongly last time out until a 40-second pitstop ruined his race.
This weekend they showed very little in practice over one lap but the data showed they had their engine detuned by the fact they were 7km/h slower than average across the start finish line.
Comments from the drivers after practice were very positive as they said they were doing testing on upgrades during the sessions instead of focusing on performance. Valtteri Bottas was especially bullish on the car's chances this weekend as he said getting into Q3 was a possibility.
Both drivers were available to back at 12/1 for points pre-qualifying with Bottas now shortening to around the 3/1 mark.
Zhou suffered damage to his front wing on the exit of turn ten which resulted in qualifying at the back and will now start in the pitlane. With the pitlane start, the team can set his car up for the race and try an alternative strategy. This, combined with the chance race interruptions, can mean Zhou can get make a run at the points.
Posted at 1115 GMT on 23/03/24
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