Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Rodri to score anytime at 11/2 (General)
Manchester City returned to winning ways in the Premier League on Saturday by beating Brighton 2-1 having lost three of their previous four games domestically in league and cup.
On the continent, their defence of the Champions League has got off to a perfect start, winning both of their group games against Red Star Belgrade and RB Leipzig, scoring six goals in the process.
At 1/6 on, the implied probability of Pep Guardiola’s side making it three from three is 85.7% and it is difficult to envisage anything other than an away win.
What are the best bets?
No RODRI? Big problem.
When the Spanish midfielder was suspended, City lost each of their three games and looking at the underlying data, that is hardly a surprise.
Only John Stones trumps his pass percentage at City (95%), while Rodri ranks second for aerials won (1.1), tops the charts for tackles (2.1) and fouls (1.7) and ranks third for dribbles (1.4).
His offensive figures are quite surprising. Only Julian Alvarez and Erling Haaland have hit more shots per game (2).
Across this competition and the Premier League, Rodri has had a direct hand in four goals, scoring three, one of which came against Red Star Belgrade.
At 11/2, backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME is the bet.
BuildABet @ 40/1
- Young Boys +1 handicap
- Anthony Racioppi to be shown a card
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
If you fancy something on the larger side, combining Young Boys +1 (goal handicap) with their keeper Anthony Racioppi to be shown a card, could provide some interest.
Obviously I am completely contradicting my correct scoreline prediction and going against the Rodri goalscorer selection with this bet builder, which depicts its tongue in cheek nature.
There is some substance to the punt though.
En route to the trophy last season, Man City actually drew back-to-back games 0-0 against FC Copenhagen and Borussia Dortmund in October. The two blunt performances were a consequence of a hectic schedule with Pep Guardiola’s side playing six games over a 21-day period.
Last week was the first time in over a month City have not had two games per week, which is why this trip to Switzerland could be framed as a banana skin.
Racioppi has picked up a card this campaign as well.
Score prediction: Young Boys 1-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Team news
With no fresh injury concerns for the hosts, Raphael Wicky could name the same XI that drew 0-0 with title rivals Zurich at the weekend.
As for the visitors, Kevin de Bruyne remains sidelined.
Ederson is expected to replace Stefan Ortega in goal and Nathan Ake could come in for Manuel Akanji at the heart of defence. Akanji is available in this competition, despite getting sent off at the weekend.
Elsewhere, Mateo Kovacic could replace John Stones in centre midfield. Erling Haaland will no doubt spearhead the visitors' attack, with Julian Alvarez operating just off City’s number nine.
Predicted line-ups
Young Boys: Racioppi; Janko, Camara, Benito, Garcia; Males, Ugrinic, Niasse; Elia; Monterio, Itten
Manchester City: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake, Gvardiol; Rodri, Kovacic; Foden, Alvarez, Doku; Haaland
Match facts
- This is the first ever competitive meeting between Young Boys and Manchester City – the Swiss side won their most recent home against Premier League opposition, beating Man Utd 2-1 in the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League.
- Young Boys have played more games in the UEFA Champions League without ever keeping a clean sheet than any other team (14). The Swiss side have conceded 29 times across their 14 matches, at an average of 2.1 per outing.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 15 matches in the UEFA Champions League (W10 D5), with only Manchester United ever having a longer run without defeat among English teams in European Cup/Champions League history (2 runs of 16, and a 25-game run between 2007 and 2009).
- Manchester City have had 55 shots in their two UEFA Champions League games this season, while only facing six opposition shots in return. Indeed, that was the biggest differential for any side across the opening two matchdays, while they also had the best xG difference in terms of chances created and conceded (+5.2 – 6.4 xG for and 1.2 xG against).
Odds correct at 1805 BST (23/10/23)
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