xG World Cup review: Day seven scorelines according to expected goals

By Sporting Life

Football

Mon November 28, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from across day seven of the World Cup.

Day six xG verdict: England fail to fire

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Argentina 2-0 Mexico

Infogol xG: 0.35-0.18
Fairness rating: 63.26%
Scorers: Messi 64', Fernandez 87'

Argentina’s World Cup flame flickered on as moments of class from Lionel Messi (0.05 xG) and substitute Enzo Fernandez (0.05 xG) settled a bad-tempered, extremely nervy clash against Mexico.

The South Americans, who were among the pre-tournament favourites, suffered a shock 2-1 loss to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday but brought themselves back into last-16 contention with victory at the Lusail Stadium.

PSG superstar Messi, at 35 playing in what is his fifth and surely final World Cup, ignited Argentina with a long-range strike 19 minutes into the second half, and Benfica midfielder Rodriguez made sure with a sublime curler three minutes from the end of normal time.

Mexico barely threatened the Argentina goal in a game that featured just nine shots and had the lowest xG total in the tournament thus far.

Argentina still need a win over Poland to be certain of going through, but there were at least some signs of life from this team after the traumatic defeat they suffered here four days ago.

#ARG 2-0 #MEX
xG: 0.35-0.18

Messi magic required on an extremely nervy night. Just 0.53 xG in total.#FIFAWorldCup | #ARGMEX pic.twitter.com/TBaUshCL1N
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) November 26, 2022

France 2-1 Denmark

Infogol xG: 2.65-0.85
Fairness rating: 87.83%
Scorers: Mbappe 61', 86' | Christensen 68'

Kylian Mbappe struck twice as France saw off bogey team Denmark 2-1 to book a place in the World Cup knockout stage.

Mbappe, outstanding in France’s opening Group D victory over Australia, was the star of the show again with two close-range finishes – his winner coming four minutes from time.

Denmark, who had beaten France twice in the Nations League this year, fell behind after 61 minutes but soon levelled through Andreas Christensen.

Mbappe’s double puts him alongside Pele as the only players to score seven or more World Cup goals before their 25th birthday.

The victory extended defending champions France’s World Cup winning streak to six games.

#FRA 2-1 #DEN
xG: 2.65-0.85

Mbappe's double means France sit pretty on six points.#FIFAWorldCup | #FRADEN pic.twitter.com/jQvxf4YMM6
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) November 26, 2022

Poland 2-0 Saudi Arabia

Infogol xG: 2.73-2.25
Fairness rating: 64.72%
Scorers: Zielinski 39', Lewandowski 82'

Wojciech Szczesny was Poland’s hero with a crucial penalty save as they kept their hopes of World Cup progress alive with a 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia.

Poland led 1-0 through Piotr Zielinski’s goal as half-time approached when the Saudis were awarded the softest of penalties following a VAR check.

But former Arsenal goalkeeper Szczesny denied them another moment of celebration to follow their shock win over Argentina as he first kept out captain Salem Al Dawsari’s penalty, and then produced an even better stop to tip over Mohammed Al Burayk’s effort on the rebound.

Robert Lewandowski’s first World Cup finals goal then sealed the deal with eight minutes to go. The Barcelona star shed tears of joy – and possibly relief – at breaking his duck.

#POL 2-0 #KSA
xG: 2.73-2.25

Saudi Arabia miss plenty of chances to score as Poland take charge in Group C.#FIFAWorldCup | #POLKSA pic.twitter.com/a00bgA1Rdo
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) November 26, 2022

Tunisia 0-1 Australia

Infogol xG: 1.26-0.58
Fairness rating: 52.15%
Scorers: Duke 23'

Australia ignited their World Cup as a stunning header from Mitchell Duke (0.06 xG) secured a 1-0 win over Tunisia.

The Socceroos had been thumped 4-1 by France in their Group D opener and knew another defeat would almost certainly send them packing.

But Duke’s first-half goal set up what looks set to be a straight shoot-out with Denmark next week for a place in the last 16.

While Australia celebrated a crucial win in a game of few chances, Tunisia’s prospects look slim with one point to their name and a final group-stage match against holders France on Wednesday.