xG World Cup review: Day one scorelines according to expected goals

By Joe Townsend

Football

Mon November 21, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points for the World Cup opener as Ecuador easily beat Qatar.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Qatar 0-2 Ecuador

Infogol xG: 0.45-1.11
Fairness rating: 75.38%
Valencia 16' pen, 31'

Host nation Qatar were outclassed by Ecuador in what was a very poor quality World Cup opener.

The low fairness rating is not an indication that they did not fully warrant victory, more a reflection of the fact that few chances were created by either side, with a 1-0 win for the South American side the 'fairest' result according to Infogol.

🌟 Enner Valencia has scored more goals (five) in four World Cup games for Ecuador than he managed in any of his three full Premier League seasons.#FIFAWorldCup #ECU pic.twitter.com/FQIQ8IfevI
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) November 20, 2022

Enner Valencia's penalty (0.80) accounted for more than half the game's expected goals (xG) total with only 0.76 non-penalty xG created - a staggeringly low amount.

A great start for Ecuador, a match to forget for everyone else.