xG World Cup review: Day 21 scorelines according to expected goals

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Mon December 12, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from day 21 of the World Cup.

Day 20 xG Verdict: Shocks and drama

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

England 1-2 France

Infogol xG: 2.68-1.41
Fairness rating: 57.02%
Scorers: Kane 54' (pen) | Tchouameni 17', Giroud 78'

Reigning world champions France advanced to the semi-finals at England's expense thanks to an Olivier Giroud winner, though Harry Kane missed an 84th minute penalty which would have levelled proceedings.

England won the xG battle convincingly on the night, but did really struggle to create chances from non-penalty situations.

The Three Lions mustered just 1.08 xGF on the night, failing to generate a non-penalty big chance (0.35 xG+).

It was the first time since England's 2018 World Cup exit against Croatia that Gareth Southgate's side failed to generate a single non-penalty big chance in a tournament game.

France also struggled to create chances on the night, with Kylian Mbappe kept extremely quiet, but Les Bleus did seem to step up a gear for a few minutes before Giroud's goal, catching England off guard.

The ex-Arsenal man had two big chances in the 77th and 78th minute, scoring the second one after Jordan Pickford saved the first. Those were France's best chances of the game.

On the whole, England were unfortunate to bow out. Based on the chances created, Infogol calculates that the Three Lions would win the game 62.5% of the time.

Ultimately, it was Kane's penalty miss that proved extremely costly for England, who were reliant on spot-kicks from a good chance perspective on the night.

Morocco 1-0 Portugal

Infogol xG: 1.26-1.53
Fairness rating: 63.32%
Scorers: En-Nesyri 42'

Morocco made history on Saturday, beating Portugal to become the first African team to make it to the semi-finals of a World Cup.

A first-half goal from striker Yussef En-Nesyri proved the match winner, as the Atlas Lions again relied upon their defensive approach to pull of the upset.

🇲🇦 MOROCCO ARE THROUGH TO THE WORLD CUP SEMI FINALS!

What. A. Story. History!

👏 #MAR | #FIFAWorldCup | #MARPOR pic.twitter.com/8amYRjxU3K
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) December 10, 2022

After scoring six against Switzerland, Portugal drew a blank just as all of Morocco's opponents have at this tournament.

Walid Regragui's side have allowed an average of 1.23 xGA per game, while conceding just six 'big chances' (0.35 xG+) in five games at the World Cup.

Those chances haven't been punished, with Morocco yet to concede a goal scored by an opposition player - Canada's consolation having been an own goal.

Portugal can perhaps feel hard done by having created the better of the chances, with Infogol calculating only a 21.7% chance that Cristiano Ronaldo and co failed to score on the day.