xG World Cup review: Day 14 scorelines according to expected goals

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Sun December 04, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from across day 14 of the World Cup.

Day 13 xG verdict: Plucky Cameroon, Swiss dominance

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Argentina 2-1 Australia

Infogol xG: 1.79-0.63
Fairness rating: 94.38%
Messi 35', Alvarez 57' | E Fernandez (og) 77'

Argentina advanced past Australia on the back of Lionel Messi magic, though they were far from impressive.

La Albiceleste led at the break through Messi's cool finish, but the xG totals at the half read 0.08-0.08 as neither side created much.

Argentina improved in the second period as Australia chased the game, and could have won more comfortably, with substitute Lautaro Martinez missing two good chances.

He accounted for 0.73 xG after his introduction in the 50th minute, 41% of his teams total.

Australia fought hard, but didn't have the quality to match Argentina, with their best chance coming in the 97th minute (Kuol, 0.35 xG).

Nonetheless, Argentina progress, and their defensive process at this tournament has been sensational. Through four games, they have allowed an average of just 0.32 xGA per game.

Netherlands 3-1 USA

Infogol xG: 1.83-2.15
Fairness rating: 60.35%
Memphis 10', Blind 45+1, Dumfries 81' | Wright 76'

The Netherlands booked their spot in the quarter-finals of the World Cup with a win over the USA, with clinical finishing to thank.

Oranje took a 2-0 lead into half-time despite mustering just five shots equating to 0.38 xG, ruthlessly dispatching two of those shots to put the onus on the US in the second half.

The USA did come out and have a go after the break, and racked up the chances in doing so, but couldn't take advantage.

Based on Infogol calculations, according to the quality of chances created by both teams in the game, the USA had a 45.2% chance of winning the game, and a 66.8% chance of avoiding defeat. On another day, the USA would likely have progressed.

The Netherlands again underwhelmed on the whole, and have shown some defensive weaknesses in this game, but the feeling around Louis van Gaal's side is that they are yet to step out of second gear. There could be more to come from them.