xG World Cup review: Day 13 scorelines according to expected goals

By Jake Osgathorpe & Joe Townsend

Football

Fri December 02, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from across day 13 of the World Cup.

Day 12 xG verdict: Too little too late for Germany

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Serbia 2-3 Switzerland

Infogol xG: 1.35-3.56
Fairness rating: 82.20%
Mitrovic 26', Vlahovic 35' | Shaqiri 20', Embolo 44', Freuler 48'

Switzerland booked their place in the round of 16 with a deserved victory over Serbia.

The match swung in both directions, with the Serbs fighting back from 1-0 down to lead 2-1 before Breel Embolo equalised shortly before the break.

Ultimately, a goal from Nottingham Forest midfielder Remo Freuler proved to be decisive when he finished off a superb team move early in the half.

It was just reward for the Swiss, who restricted their opponents to just one 'big chance' (0.35 xG+) in the match while creating five themselves and another at 0.31 xG.

They will now meet Portugal in the last 16.

Cameroon 1-0 Brazil

Infogol xG: 0.88-3.14
Fairness rating: 32.54%
Aboubakar 90+2'

Cameroon exited the World Cup with a bang as Vincent Aboubakar secured a smash-and-grab win in stoppage time before removing his shirt to celebrate - an act that resulted in a second yellow card, and subsequent red.

Switzerland's win over Serbia meant despite victory over the tournament favourites, Cameroon were knocked out.

A much-changed Brazil team had more than enough opportunities to win the game, with the fairness rating of 32.54% among the lowest so far at the 2022 World Cup.

Despite being punished for a lack of clinical finishing, Brazil still finished top of Group G and will now face South Korea in the round of 16.

South Korea 2-1 Portugal

Infogol xG: 1.62-1.42
Fairness rating: 83.42%
Young-Gwon 27', Hee-Chan 90+1 | Horta 5'

There was incredible late drama as South Korea scored in the 91st minute to beat Portugal 2-1 and book their place in the Round of 16 by virtue of goals scored.

It was the late show for the Koreans, with Wolves forward Hwang Hee-Chan scoring the winner to send his nation into the knockout rounds against all odds.

While it may seem like a smash and grab from South Koreans, it is worth pointing out that they actually won the xG battle in all three group games

They finish with an expected goal difference (xGD) of +1.01, meaning that on average they were 0.33 xG per game superior to their opponents.

South Korea fully deserved to qualify.

As for Portugal, they did ring the changes for this game, but when full strength in their opening two games they did struggle to create chances.

In total across their three group games, A Selecao averaged just 1.28 non-pen xGF per game, so they are going to need to step their game up if they are to go deep at Qatar.

Ghana 0-2 Uruguay

Infogol xG: 1.40-1.75
Fairness rating: 64.78%
De Arrascaeta 26', 32'

In a game full of drama, neither team ended up qualifying despite Uruguay running out 2-0 winners.

It was more penalty heartache for Ghana against La Celeste as Andre Ayew missed from the spot after 21 minutes, and it didn't take Uruguay long to capitalise.

They scored twice in quick succession to take a commanding lead in the game, but coach Diego Alonso made what turned into the cardinal sin of taking off his best attackers.

With the South Korea game 1-1 heading into added time, it seemed as though bringing on more defensive and more structured players was the way to go, but in the end it came back to bite the Uruguayans.

South Korea scored, leaving Uruguay needing to score one more to progress, but Alonso has Darwin Nunez, Luis Suarez and goalscorer Giorguan de Arrascaeta on the bench for the final throws.

In the second half, the South Americans managed just 0.34 xGF, while they mustered just 0.19 xG when desperately chasing a goal to advance.

They perhaps feel a bit aggreived to have gone out after suffering an undeserved defeat to Portugal, but they simply didn't create enough chances in Qatar.

As for Ghana, they rightly head home, with their defence easily exposed in all three contests. They finish their World Cup campaign having allowed an average of 2.23 xGA per game - that just won't get it done.