xG World Cup final review according to expected goals

By Joe Townsend

Football

Mon December 19, 2022 · 2y ago

We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from the World Cup final between Argentina and France.

Third place play-off xG verdict: Lucky Croats

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Argentina 3-3 France

Infogol xG: 3.45-2.29
Fairness rating: 81.86
Messi 23' pen, 108', Di María 36' | Mbappe 80' pen, 81', 118' pen

Argentina won the World Cup by beating France 4-2 on penalties after a thrilling 3-3 draw in the final, meaning Lionel Messi has now won every major honour possible.

A final billed as Messi versus Kylian Mbappe was completely one-sided until bursting into life when the latter fired home twice in the space of 90 seconds with just 10 minutes of normal time remaining, cancelling out a first-half Messi penalty and Angel Di Maria's strike, to force an extra half an hour.

Argentina and Messi deliver for Sporting Life followers

Victory for Argentina and Lionel Messi's clinching of the Golden Ball saw Sporting Life followers land 7/1 and 12/1 antepost winners respectively from our outright and player of the tournament previews
It follows the Sporting Life team's correct calling of Italy to win Euro 2020 at 11/1

Up until Mbappe's penalty the French had failed to register a single shot on target in the match, and only two shots overall.

Even at full-time the xG totals read 1.77-1.09 in Argentina's favour such was their dominance, with the holders restricted to just 0.29 non-penalty xG.

#ARG 2-2 #FRA
xG: 1.77-1.09

Messi v Mbappe show.

It's going to extra time.#FIFAWorldCupFinal pic.twitter.com/ImxDzfvW9Z
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) December 18, 2022

Messi then looked to have won it when he forced the ball home on the rebound in the 108th minute only for Mbappe to complete a hat-trick by converting his second penalty of the match with only two of the 120 minutes remaining.

Although extra time may have appeared to have been helter-skelter, again it was Argentina who dominated from a non-penalty xG perspective with the South Americans creating 1.68 to France's 0.40.

While quite rightly the final will be remembered for Mbappe's heroics in vain in direct competition with Messi's own efforts to drag his team to glory, ultimately it was Emiliano Martinez who proved to be the hero.

The Aston Villa goalkeeper made a remarkable save in the dying embers of extra time to deny Randal Kolo Muani (0.33) from point blank range before saving from Kingsley Coman in the shootout.

Aurélien Tchouaméni then shot wide from the spot, leaving Gonzalo Montiel to fire home and clinch a third World Cup triumph for Argentina.