xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 29 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

SUNDAY

Newcastle 2-0 Man United

• Infogol xG: 3.15 - 0.37
• Fairness rating: 99.22
• Scorers: Willock 65', C Wilson 88'

Newcastle gave their Champions League hopes a boost with a 2-0 win over Man United at St James' Park.

Eddie Howe's side climbed above their top four rivals on goal difference to third - and they were well deserving of a third Premier League win in a row.

A clean sheet at one end with the visitors restricted to six low probability chances rated no higher than 9%, the Magpies were impressive at the other end and the 99.22% fairness rating shows it.

Newcastle had 22 shots (six on target) - four of them over 23%, while another four were over 10%.

The 3+ xG created was not their highest total of the season - coming in at fourth, behind displays against Villa, Palace and Fulham.

For the Red Devils, it's another defeat on the road to a top nine opponent - Brentford, Man City, Aston Villa, Arsenal & Liverpool previously - with trips to Tottenham & Brighton still to come.

West Ham 1-0 Southampton

• Infogol xG: 1.32 - 0.39
• Fairness rating: 94.02
• Scorers: Aguerd 25'

West Ham gave their survival hopes a boost with a 1-0 victory over relegation rivals Southampton.

The Hammers started the day in 19th, but this result sends them up to 14th and one point clear of the drop with a game in hand on those around them.

Nayef Aguerd's thumping, first-half free header (0.22 xG), which had a VAR review for offside which took over three minutes, was the difference.

The Hammers had the better chances overall, with the best in terms of xG falling to Lucas Paqueta in the 82nd minute, a chance rated at 41%. It dropped on the right-hand side of the six-yard box following a corner, but he blazed over.

At the other end, Ruben Selles' Saints were reduced to low probability opportunities.

The highest of their nine efforts came in at just 6%. They remain rooted to the bottom of the table, four points from safety having played a game more.

SATURDAY

By Tom Carnduff

Brighton 3-3 Brentford

• Infogol xG: 4.11 - 1.22
• Fairness rating: 60.71
• Scorers: Mitoma 21', Welbeck 28', Mac Allister 90' (pen) | Jansson 10', Toney 22', Pinnock 49'

Brighton and Brentford saw the points shared in a six-goal thriller at the Amex.

An incredible contest between two teams aiming for European football next season ended with the hosts being unable to find a winner despite seeing the much better opportunities.

A chaotic first-half delivered plenty of goals and entertainment, with the sides level at 2-2 going into the break.

Pontus Jansson's header had given the Bees the lead against the run of play in the 10th minute, but the in-form Kaoru Mitoma hit back shortly after as he connected with goalkeeper Jason Steele's long ball forward.

Moments later, Ivan Toney had Brentford back ahead but that lead again only lasted a matter of minutes. Danny Welbeck struck Brighton's second equaliser of the day.

It meant Roberto De Zerbi's side created 1.53 xG from their 16 first-half efforts - eight of those were on target as David Raya was kept busy.

The second-half started in the same fashion as the first, with Ethan Pinnock regaining the advantage for the away side, with his chance (0.53 xG) their best of the game.

Raya looked like he was going to be Brentford's hero with a huge total of 12 saves, but Alexis Mac Allister's late penalty gave Brighton a point in a thriller.

Chelsea 0-2 Aston Villa

• Infogol xG: 2.50 - 0.73
• Fairness rating: 23.90
• Scorers: Watkins 18', McGinn 56'

Chelsea were punished for their wasteful showing in front of goal as they were beaten 2-0 by Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge.

Ollie Watkins grabbed the first inside the opening 20 minutes as he lofted the ball over Kepa Arrizabalaga one-on-one, followed by John McGinn finding the bottom corner from distance to secure the result.

Graham Potter's Blues had a huge total of 27 shots to Villa's five, posting a total xG tally of 2.50.

That's the highest figure across Chelsea's last ten Premier League games - the sixth time they've failed to score across that run.

It was another concerning result for the hosts, and one that left them 11th in the Premier League table.

For Villa, they went above their opponents to move into the top-half of the standings, with just two points now separating them and Brighton in 6th.

Arsenal 4-1 Leeds

• Infogol xG: 3.05 - 0.50
• Fairness rating: 98.75
• Scorers: Jesus 35' (pen) 55, White 48', Xhaka 84' | Kristensen 76'

Arsenal retained their advantage at the top of the Premier League table with a 4-1 win over Leeds.

Javi Gracia's tactical tweaks to his starting XI had looked effective in the first-half, with the Whites creating a few half chances and seemingly keeping Arsenal at bay.

That changed when Luke Ayling brought down the returning Gabriel Jesus in the box, who then converted from the spot.

Former Leeds loanee Ben White struck early in the second-half as he linked up with Gabriel Martinelli, settling any potential nerves that could have been in place at the break.

Jesus then secured the result, but Leeds hit back through Rasmus Kristensen - a goal scored for a second game in a row.

Granit Xhaka restored their three-goal advantage, as the Gunners stay eight points clear in first.

Manchester City 4-1 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 2.63 - 0.26
• Fairness rating: 97.87
• Scorers: Alvarez 27', De Bruyne 46', Gundogan 53', Grealish 74' | Salah 17'

Manchester City kept playing their part in the title race with a 4-1 hammering of rivals Liverpool at the Etihad.

Pep Guardiola's side had to come from behind after conceding to a Mohamed Salah strike early on, but that was just one a handful of chances they allowed to the visitors.

Salah had two of the Reds' four shots across the course of the contest, leading them to a total xG figure of just 0.26.

The goal was their lowest rated of the four chances too, whereas City converted all three of the big chances they created (0.35 xG or higher).

Grealish's fourth to wrap up the result was the lowest rated of the host's four - that coming in with a rating of 0.30 xG.

Bournemouth 2-1 Fulham

• Infogol xG: 3.12 - 0.73
• Fairness rating: 81.57
• Scorers: Tavernier 50', Solanke 79' | Pereira 16'

Bournemouth pushed themselves out of the relegation zone with a vital 2-1 win over Fulham.

In terms of chances created and xG value, it was the Cherries' best attacking display of the season by far - the previous record being the 3-0 win over Everton in November (2.38 xG).

They had to come from behind though, as Andreas Pereira stepped up in the absence of the suspended Aleksandar Mitrović to give the visitors the lead in the 16th minute.

They enjoyed the better of the opportunities across the first 45, although it was a low event contest which wasn't matching the action seen elsewhere.

Half-time changes worked in favour of the Cherries, who grabbed an equaliser as they came out of the blocks quickly.

Marcus Tavernier fired in the leveller, having only been brought on at the break minutes earlier. They had two efforts on target in less than ten second-half minutes - more than they managed across the entire first.

Dominic Solanke found the way through for the hosts, who secured a crucial and deserved three points.

Crystal Palace 2-1 Leicester

• Infogol xG: 2.33 - 0.16
• Fairness rating: 78.28
• Scorers: Iversen OG 59', Mateta 90+5' | Pereira 56'

Roy Hodgson's return to Crystal Palace began with a much-needed victory as they beat Leicester 2-1 at Selhurst Park.

It looked as if the visitors were going to gain at least a point when Ricardo Pereira came off the bench to fire them into the second-half lead, only for a bit of misfortune to peg them back.

Eberechi Eze's free-kick struck the crossbar, before hitting the back of goalkeeper Daniel Iversen and rolling into the net.

With time running out, Jean-Philippe Mateta was the hero as he struck in the 95th minute, a deserved result based on chances created.

Leicester could only muster three shots across the course of the game, equalling a measly 0.16 xG. In contrast, Palace's huge total of 31 shots created 2.33 xG.

That was their second-highest of the Premier League season.

The result left the Foxes in the relegation zone, as pressure continues to mount on Brendan Rodgers.

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Wolves

• Infogol xG: 1.15 - 0.47
• Fairness rating: 81.66
• Scorers: Johnson 38' | Podence 83'

Nottingham Forest and Wolves had to settle for a point each in a 1-1 draw at the City Ground.

It was a fairly low event contest, and Forest would have fancied their chances of victory after Brennan Johnson fired them into a first-half lead.

That carried a value of just 0.08 xG, making the most of the opportunity that came his way. That said, Johnson was a lively threat throughout.

Forest restricted Wolves to very little in terms of clear cut opportunities prior to Daniel Podence's late effort, with the visitors creating 0.33 worth of xG before the 83rd minute.

It was a point that Wolves will have settled for based on performance.

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