xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 26 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Sunday - Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

Liverpool 7-0 Manchester United

• Infogol xG: 3.50 - 0.92
• Fairness rating: 89.04
• Scorers: Gakpo 43', 50', Nunez 47', 75', Salah 66', 83', Firmino 88'

Liverpool ran riot at Anfield, thrashing rivals Manchester United 7-0 in the widest victory ever in this fixture.

The Reds were created the better chances in the first half and deservedly led, but they went into another gear in the second half.

Jurgen Klopp's side played with a renewed confidence and picked apart United, creating chance after chance.

All of Liverpool's front three grabbed a brace, and in doing so, Mohamed Salah became Liverpool's all-time Premier League top scorer.

It was Liverpool's fourth win in five league games, with five straight clean sheets, as the Reds look to have turned a corner in their season.

As for United, their crumbling display now means they have conceded six and seven in away games against last season's top two, as well as three at current leaders Arsenal, highlighting major defensive issues when they come up against elite attacking sides.

The 3.50 xGA they conceded was the most the Red Devils have allowed in a Premier League game since... a 5-0 mauling by Liverpool at Old Trafford last season (3.57).

In fact, it's fair to say that Manchester United just struggle against Liverpool full stop. Since Infogol began collecting data in 2014, the Reds have racked up 3+ xG in 20% of meetings.

United have conceded 3+ xGA eight times in those 329 matches, and Liverpool have been responsible for four of those.

Nottingham Forest 2-2 Everton

• Infogol xG: 0.83 - 1.89
• Fairness rating: 76.77
• Scorers: B Johnson 19', 77'; Gray (pen) 10', Doucoure 29'

An entertaining game at the City Ground saw the points shared with the result leaving both sides where they started the day in the Premier League table.

Everton were on top in the first half, creating the better of the chances and rightly leading, but the Toffees got themselves stuck after that, registering just a single shot in the second period (0.06 xG).

Forest didn't generate much more themselves (0.22 xG), but Brennan Johnson's second of the game earned them a point.

The draw extends Forest's unbeaten run at home in the league to nine, while Everton again racked up a decent xG tally.

In six games under Dyche, the Toffees have racked up an average of 1.59 xGF per game, and that ranks them as the seventh most potent attacking team since the managerial switch.That is impressive especially as they have played Arsenal twice and Liverpool away in that time, so there are positives for Everton.

Saturday - Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22)

Arsenal 3-2 Bournemouth

• Infogol xG: 2.66 - 1.66
• Fairness rating: 97.88
• Scorers: Partey 62', White 70', Nelson 90+7'; Billing 1, Senesi 57'

Reiss Nelson's 97th minute strike gave Arsenal a remarkable three points in a 3-2 victory over Bournemouth.

The Gunners bounced back having found themselves 2-0 down on the hour mark, with it appearing like they were going to collapse to the pressure applied by Manchester City in the early kick-off.

Philip Billing gave the Cherries a dream start after he scored just nine seconds into the contest, and Marcos Senesi's effort looked like it may have secured the win in the 57th minute.

But Thomas Partey pulled one back shortly after, with substitute Ben White drawing the game level in the 70th minute.

Arsenal pushed for a much-needed winner, and it was Nelson, another player introduced from the bench, who delivered a dramatic winner in the dying seconds of the game.

Manchester City 2-0 Newcastle

• Infogol xG: 1.45 - 0.43
• Fairness rating: 82.63
• Scorers: Foden 15', Silva 67'

Manchester City kept the pressure on Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table with a 2-0 victory over Newcastle in Saturday's early kick-off.

Phil Foden's wonderful footwork left opposition defenders unable to stop him for the first on 15 minutes (0.44 xG), with Bernardo Silva securing the result just two minutes after coming on as a second-half substitute (0.11 xG).

Newcastle did have chances to score throughout but lacked the final touch required. Anthony Gordon losing his footing denied him a shooting opportunity early on, while Joelinton also couldn't get a clean shot away when finding himself in a good position in the box.

That seemed to be the story of the visitors' attacks throughout the 90 minutes. They managed to get beyond the City defence but couldn't truly test Ederson on a more consistent basis.

It was a frustrating afternoon for Erling Haaland, despite claiming the assist on Silva's strike, as he could only register two shots for a combined 0.15 xG.

That meant the striker contributed just 10.3% of City's overall xG tally.

Chelsea 1-0 Leeds

• Infogol xG: 1.59 - 0.89
• Fairness rating: 85.66
• Scorers: Fofana 53'

Chelsea secured a much-needed victory as Wesley Fofana fired them to three points against Leeds.

His header from a Ben Chilwell corner (0.09 xG) was enough to separate the two sides, as the full-time whistle was greeted with an equal amount of relief to celebration.

It ended a run of six games without a win in all competitions for Graham Potter's side, although it was hardly the comfortable performance that they would have perhaps wanted.

The result was the main thing, and it keeps them in the top-half of the Premier League following Aston Villa's win over Crystal Palace.

Leeds remain out of the relegation zone by a point, but they were lacking the quality required in the final third to get something from the game.

There was almost a remarkable equaliser for Leeds goalkeeper Illan Meslier, whose header in the final minutes was denied by opposite number Kepa Arrizabalaga.

Brighton 4-0 West Ham

• Infogol xG: 2.95 - 0.36
• Fairness rating: 94.08
• Scorers: Mac Allister 18', Veltman 52', Mitoma 69', Welbeck 89'

Brighton ended their mini-blip in the Premier League with a comfortable 3-0 win over West Ham.

Alexis Mac Allister's penalty set them on their way - his first in the league since lifting the World Cup - with second-half efforts from Joel Veltman and Kaoru Mitoma wrapping up the result. Danny Welbeck got in one the scoring in the final minutes of normal time.

The Seagulls were untroubled throughout, restricting West Ham to just three shots across the 90 minutes - posting a total of 17 in response.

It's now four Premier League contests in a row where Roberto De Zerbi's side have posted 2.00 xG or higher, with at least 2.74 in each of the last three.

It's the type of dominant performances we'd see from teams capable of playing in Europe, and Brighton now find themselves a point off the top-six.

Wolves 1-0 Tottenham

• Infogol xG: 0.60 - 1.44
• Fairness rating: 48.67
• Scorers: Traore 82'

Tottenham were punished for their inability to convert first-half chances as Adama Traore scored the only goal of the contest to give Wolves victory.

Spurs had a huge total of 11 shots prior to the break, with their opponents failing to register a single effort.

It was a different story in the second-half though, as the hosts saw five of their eight shots on target, and Traore striking as the game entered the latter stages.

Despite first-half dominance, two of Tottenham's three biggest chances came in the second. Clement Lenglet (0.29 xG) and Harry Kane (0.13 xG) both couldn't find the back of the net.

Wolves are starting to really kick themselves away from relegation trouble, as they now sit six points clear of the drop zone.

Aston Villa 1-0 Crystal Palace

• Infogol xG: 1.02 - 0.22
• Fairness rating: 93.49
• Scorers: Andersen OG 27'

Joachim Andersen's first-half own goal settled things at Villa Park as the hosts secured a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace.

In what was a game of few chances, Unai Emery's side registered the only shot on target, while also limiting their opponents to a total of three efforts.

It may have been a different story had Wilfried Zaha's early goal been allowed to stand, but a VAR intervention ruled that out for offside.

Palace's winless run now stands at a worrying ten, and Patrick Vieira's men find themselves just six points clear of the relegation zone with 13 games remaining.

Southampton 1-0 Leicester

• Infogol xG: 1.29 - 1.67
• Fairness rating: 60.97
• Scorers: Alcaraz 35'

Carlos Alcaraz's strike from distance gave Southampton a crucial three points in a 1-0 win over Leicester.

The Saints' only real big chance of the contest came from the penalty spot, with Danny Ward saving James Ward-Prowse's effort just minutes before Alcaraz's goal.

It was an incredibly frustrating evening for Kelechi Iheanacho, who couldn't convert any of the five shots he took across the 90 minutes.

The striker contributed 45.5% of their overall shot count and 59.2% of their xG total. Three of his efforts came from in and around the six-yard box.

The win moved Southampton to within a point of safety, while Leicester are now only three points clear of the drop zone.

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