xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 21 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Arsenal 3-2 Manchester United

• Infogol xG: 2.63 - 0.34
• Fairness rating: 75.07
• Scorers: Nketiah 24' 90', Saka 53'; Rashford 17', Martinez 59'

Eddie Nketiah was the hero as his late goal secured Arsenal a 3-2 victory over Manchester United.

The Gunners forward netted twice on the day, with both coming from around the six-yard box.

Marcus Rashford struck from distance to open the scoring in the first 20 minutes, but Arsenal battled back, as Nketiah converted from close range and Bukayo Saka's wonderful effort found the bottom corner.

Lisandro Martínez's looping header did draw the sides level, but United couldn't hold on as Arsenal's pressure paid off late on.

Nketiah redirected another one from close range in the 90th minute to give the Gunners a crucial three points in their quest for the title.

Manchester City 3-0 Wolves

• Infogol xG: 2.95 - 0.58
• Fairness rating: 92.51
• Scorers: Haaland 40', 50', 54'

Erling Haaland's remarkable season continued as his hat-trick secured victory for Manchester City over Wolves.

It moved the forward onto 25 goals for the Premier League campaign - meaning he has surpassed last season's winning Golden Boot tally of 23 in just 19 games.

Victory moved City just two points behind Arsenal - temporarily at least - as they aim to defend their Premier League crown.

Haaland's 25 in the league have come from a total of 17.8 xG - with 74 shots giving him a conversation rate of 33.78%.

Leeds 0-0 Brentford

• Infogol xG: 0.42 - 0.24
• Fairness rating: 93.69
• Scorers:

Leeds were left frustrated in a 0-0 draw with Brentford but will take confidence from a much-needed strong defensive display.

Jesse Marsch's men were averaging an alarming 1.87 xGA per Premier League game prior to the visit of the Bees.

The 0.24 xG created by Brentford meant that it was Leeds' best defensive performance since their promotion to the Premier League in 2020.

Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle

• Infogol xG: 0.34-1.89
• Fairness rating: 65.45%

Newcastle moved up to third in the Premier League after playing out a goalless draw with Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.

The visitors dominated possession throughout the contest, which saw them squander 15 corners.

Palace were dealt a blow when Wilfried Zaha was forced off with injury in the second half and created little in the way of clear-cut opportunities.

Magpies goalkeeper Nick Pope, who kept his ninth straight clean sheet in all competitions, made a brilliant leaping save to deny substitute Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.09 xG) and ensure Newcastle returned home with something to show for their efforts.

The result drew Newcastle level on 39 points with Manchester United, who face league leaders Arsenal on Sunday, but they may feel they ought to have taken all three.

West Ham 2-0 Everton

• Infogol xG: 2.47-0.58
• Fairness rating: 92.68%
• Scorers: Bowen 34', 42'

Everton were plunged into further turmoil as their under-fire owners watched their underperforming team slump 2-0 at fellow strugglers West Ham.

Chairman Bill Kenwright and majority shareholder Farhad Moshiri were both in attendance as two goals from Jarrod Bowen kept the Toffees rooted in the relegation zone and left manager Frank Lampard’s future in serious jeopardy.

While Everton’s fans made their feelings crystal clear again, unfurling banners reading ‘Board Full Of Liars’ in the away end, their team simply capitulated, creating very little at the London Stadium.

So feeble was this display that it made West Ham, themselves in a dreadful run of form, look almost competent.

Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest

• Infogol xG: 1.75-1.68
• Fairness rating: 98.86%
• Scorers: Anthony 28'; Surridge 84'

Substitute Sam Surridge struck a late leveller to deny former club Bournemouth an overdue Premier League win as Nottingham Forest snatched a 1-1 draw at the Vitality Stadium.

Jaidon Anthony’s first-half finish helped to end the Cherries’ four-game losing streak in the top flight to ease the pressure on head coach Gary O’Neil.

But striker Surridge, who began his career with the Dorset club, poked home Brennan Johnson’s cross from close range seven minutes from time after replacing debutant Chris Wood.

The dramatic twist pushed Bournemouth into the relegation zone and leaves O’Neil still searching for his first victory since being appointed permanent Bournemouth boss in November.

Meanwhile, in-form Forest maintained their momentum by registering an 11th point from the last 18 available.

Leicester 2-2 Brighton

• Infogol xG: 1.53-1.68
• Fairness rating: 96.44%
• Scorers: Albrighton 38', Barnes 63'; Mitoma 27', Ferguson 88'

Evan Ferguson’s late header rescued a deserved Premier League point for Brighton at Leicester.

The substitute nodded in to clinch a 2-2 draw and maintain the Seagulls’ assault on the top five, Ferguson's third goal in his last four Premier League appearances (1.66 xG, eight shots).

Harvey Barnes and Marc Albrighton had struck for the hosts to cancel out Kaoru Mitoma’s sensational opener. It is still the first time the Foxes have earned a point after falling behind this season.

The Seagulls missed the chance to move into the Premier League’s top five – but climbed to sixth – while Leicester moved up to 14th in a congested mid-table.

Southampton 0-1 Aston Villa

• Infogol xG: 0.81-1.39
• Fairness rating: 84.17%
• Scorers: Watkins 77'

Ollie Watkins’ late winner secured all three points for Aston Villa after Southampton had two goals ruled out at St Mary’s.

Watkins’ header in the 77th minute proved enough for the visitors to win 1-0 and move up to 11th in the Premier League, just one point behind Chelsea and Liverpool.

The result brought an end to Southampton’s three-game winning run in all competitions and they remain at the bottom of the table.

Liverpool 0-0 Chelsea

• Infogol xG: 1.35-1.69
• Fairness rating: 92.28%

Liverpool’s goalless draw with Chelsea – only their second in 80 league meetings – was as unsurprising as it was disappointing as two struggling sides failed to rise to the occasion.

For the last decade such a result between the two would often have been viewed as satisfactory but this was a missed opportunity for both and was a poor return on Jurgen Klopp’s 1,000th game as a manager.

Both clubs are currently a shadow of their best selves and the fact that this was sides in ninth and 10th place trying – and failing – to significantly close the gap on the top four shows how bad things currently are.

Poor finishing was a suitable summary of the game as a whole, with a total of 3.04 xG squandered, and the final whistle was greeted with general indifference around Anfield.

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