xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 20 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Tottenham 0-2 Arsenal

• Infogol xG: 1.64-2.31
• Fairness rating: 70.01%
• Scorers: Hugo Lloris OG 14', Martin Odegaard 36'

Arsenal extended their lead at the top of the Premier League to eight points with a 2-0 win over rivals Tottenham in the north London derby.

It was their first away win against Spurs since 2014 - captained by Mikel Arteta that day - sealed with two first-half strikes with the Gunners impressively in cruise control.

The opener saw Hugo Lloris clumsily spill Bukayo Saka's cross into the goal while Martin Odegaard doubled their advantage by sliding an impressive effort past the Frenchman from 25 yards.

Aaron Ramsdale made some big saves at the other end to deny Heung-min Son (0.32), Harry Kane (0.36) and in the second half when he got a crucial toe to Ryan Sessegnon's effort (0.24).

The Gunners boast the best away record in the league, with eight wins and a draw from 10, losing only to Manchester United. They have scored 20 goals (18.4 xGF) and conceded just six (10.3 xGF).

Next up, Man United at home on Sunday. A big test with Erik ten Hag's side quietly surging up the table and into potential title contention.

Chelsea 1-0 Crystal Palace

• Infogol xG: 2.09-1.07
• Fairness rating: 90.30%
• Scorers: Kai Havertz 64'

Graham Potter and Chelsea got back to winning ways with a 1-0 scoreline v Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge.

Kai Havertz' second-half header (0.13 xG) was the difference, provided by Hakim Ziyech, as the Blues created more quality chances on the day, registering other significant efforts via Havertz (0.52 + 0.32), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.31) & Lewis Hall (0.26).

Of Chelsea's total xG of 2.09 xG, German attacker Havertz contributed 1.1 (53%).

Patrick Vieira's Eagles had 10 efforts at the other end, with just two of them exceeding 0.10 xG - Tyrick Mitchell (0.58) & Jeffrey Schlupp (0.11).

Newcastle 1-0 Fulham

• Infogol xG: 1.90-0.30
• Fairness rating: 86.21%
• Scorers: Alexander Isak 89'

Second-half drama saw Fulham miss a penalty before Newcastle then sealed a late winner through Alexander Isak to go back up to third in the Premier League table.

In fact, the Cottagers *technically* did not miss a penalty, as the spot kick got chalked off. That's because Aleksandar Mitrovic stepped up to take the set piece against his former club, but upon striking the ball he slipped and kicked it into his standing foot as it then deflected past Nick Pope.

It was ruled out by referee Robert Jones, with a free-kick given in the home side's favour, hence why this does not contribute to Fulham's xG total.

With the clock ticking and Eddie Howe's side heading for a third successive league 0-0, Sweden forward Isak was there to tap home from close range (0.47) after Callum Wilson's inviting cross.

The hosts had 20 attempts in total, just four of which were rated at more than 0.10 xG.

Marco Silva's Fulham, meanwhile, had little chance creation at the other end - with efforts at just 0.05 + 0.05 + 0.12 + 0.08.

SATURDAY

By Tom Carnduff

Brighton 3-0 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 2.03 - 1.11
• Fairness rating: 71.44
• Scorers: March 47', 53', Welbeck 82'

Brighton moved to within a point of the top-six in the Premier League table after a memorable 3-0 victory over Liverpool at the Amex.

Solly March's brace early into the second-half put the Seagulls in complete control, before substitute Danny Welbeck made it certain with a goal in the final ten minutes.

It means that Brighton have scored nine goals across their last three Premier League contests - that coming from a total of 5.95 xG.

Including the FA Cup win over Middlesbrough, it's 14 goals across the last four in all competitions. A remarkable return for a side charging towards the European places.

March's brace took his return across the last four games to four goals - that all coming from a total of ten shots and 1.10 xG.

Manchester United 2-1 Manchester City

• Infogol xG: 1.68 - 0.70
• Fairness rating: 98.08
• Scorers: Fernandes 78', Rashford 82' | Grealish 60'

Marcus Rashford's red-hot form in front of goal continued as he scored the winner for Manchester United against rivals Manchester City.

It was Rashford's third big chance (0.35 xG or above) of the contest when he struck from close range in the 82nd minute.

Substitute Jack Grealish had given City the lead as the game approached the hour mark - the breakthrough coming after constant pressure from the away side in the second-half.

Bruno Fernandes' equaliser had been ruled out for offside, with Rashford running onto the ball, but his decision to leave it for the midfielder to strike ensured that the move remained within the rules.

It made it back-to-back defeats for City across all competitions, after they were stunned by Southampton in the Carabao Cup in midweek.

City's 0.70 xG tally was their lowest of the season - with the 0.73 in their away win at Leicester previously being the marker.

Everton 1-2 Southampton

• Infogol xG: 1.27 - 1.10
• Fairness rating: 75.91
• Scorers: Onana 39' | Ward-Prowse 46', 78'

Pressure continues to mount on Frank Lampard after his Everton side suffered a 2-1 home defeat to fellow strugglers Southampton.

The Toffees can feel somewhat unfortunate not to have more points on their tally though - particularly in contests in front of their own supporters.

Everton have posted the higher xG tally in two of their last three games at home, yet all three ended in defeat and they now sit 19th in the standings.

For Southampton, victory didn't move them off bottom but did at least put them within a point of safety.

Nottingham Forest 2-0 Leicester

• Infogol xG: 1.71 - 1.01
• Fairness rating: 72.22
• Scorers: Johnson 56', 85'

Brennan Johnson's brace secured victory for Nottingham Forest and moved them five points clear of the relegation zone.

It was a deserved victory, based on the expected goals figures, and made it ten points returned from Forest's last possible 15.

On the other side, Leicester continue to struggle, with only Everton, Leeds and West Ham returning fewer points across their last five games.

The pre-World Cup break form has counted for very little now, as Brendan Rodgers' men find themselves just two points above the relegation places at the halfway stage.

Wolves 1-0 West Ham

• Infogol xG: 0.93 - 0.87
• Fairness rating: 70.98
• Scorers: Podence 48'

Wolves secured their second win in four Premier League games under Julen Lopetegui as a 1-0 victory over West Ham moved them out of the relegation zone.

Daniel Podence's goal means that Wolves have returned seven points from a possible 12 under Lopetegui's guidance - with four goals scored from 3.9 xG created.

The Hammers' miserable form continued, with no side returning fewer points across their last ten Premier League games (5).

It also means that David Moyes' men have returned the lower xG tally in each of their last seven league outings.

Across that period, they've seen 7.1 xGF and 10.2 xGA - although one 'positive' is that their xGD sitting at -3.2 is much lower than their actual -9.

Brentford 2-0 Bournemouth

• Infogol xG: 1.34 - 0.41
• Fairness rating: 81.00
• Scorers: Toney 39', Jensen 75'

Brentford made it three Premier League wins in a row with a 2-0 victory over Bournemouth in Saturday's late kick-off.

Ivan Toney's first-half penalty sent them on their way, before Mathias Jensen's strike secured the result as the game entered the final 15 minutes.

It was a low-event contest, with both sides combining for just 0.95 open play xG.

Bournemouth sit a point above the drop zone as they hit the halfway stage, and they've failed to break above 1.00 xG in 15 of their 19 Premier League games this season.

It's the opposite for Brentford, who have gone above that marker in 17 of their 19 - with it being the case in each of their last 12.

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