xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 18 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Chelsea

• Infogol xG: 0.94-1.26
• Fairness rating: 91.88%
• Scorers: Sterling 16'; Aurier 63'

Nottingham Forest gave their Premier League survival hopes a shot in the arm with a 1-1 draw against Chelsea, whose troubles on the road continued.

Forest had already beaten Liverpool and Tottenham at the City Ground this season and turned in another impressive performance against one of the big boys.

After falling behind to Raheem Sterling’s opener against the run of play, they put in a fine second-half display which was rewarded with Serge Aurier’s equaliser just after the hour.

On the balance of the game, Steve Cooper’s men arguably deserved to win as Morgan Gibbs-White hit the crossbar, but this will give them great encouragement in their bid to beat the drop this season.

Chelsea did at least stop a fourth away defeat in a row but they will require a vast improvement if they are to close the seven-point gap on the top four.

Tottenham 0-2 Aston Villa

• Infogol xG: 0.57-1.26
• Fairness rating: 75.34%
• Scorers: Buendia 50', Douglas Luiz 73'

Tottenham’s Premier League top-four hopes suffered a blow after second-half goals from Emiliano Buendia and Douglas Luiz fired Aston Villa to a 2-0 win.

World Cup finalists Hugo Lloris and Cristian Romero were back for Spurs, but the former was at fault for Buendia’s opener and Luiz was able to wrap up the points with a fine 73rd-minute finish.

It extended Unai Emery’s unbeaten record against Tottenham to four games and inflicted more misery on Antonio Conte’s side, who have conceded first in their last 10 matches and now dropped to fifth in the Premier League.

Spurs struggled to create chances throughout, creating just 0.57 expected goals (xG), and were booed off after a third home defeat from their last five games.

Wolves 0-1 Man Utd

• Infogol xG: 0.61-2.25
• Fairness rating: 97.37%
• Rashford 76'

A goal from substitute Marcus Rashford, benched for a disciplinary issue, proved the difference in a match Manchester United were far superior and throughly warranted victory - as demonstrated by the exceptionally high fairness rating of 97.37%.

For Wolves it followed the same pattern to the majority of their Premier League outings this season.

A 2-1 win at Everton in Julen Lopetegui's first game in charge was only the second time the Old Gold had found the net on more than one occasion in 2022/23, but in being kept at bay by United they have now failed to score in nine of their 17 league games and average just 1.09 expected goals for (xGA) per game.

There were hopeful signs in injury time however, as Raul Jimenez was on the end of Wolves' two best chances (0.10 and 0.11 xG) thanks to football of a similar style that led to him netting 17 league goals in the 19/20 campaign.

Bournemouth 0-2 C Palace

• Infogol xG: 0.74-1.81
• Fairness rating: 80.98%
• Ayew 19', Eze 36'

Crystal Palace scored twice from set pieces to bounce back from their Boxing Day thrashing by Fulham, a match in which they failed to register a shot on target after being reduced to 10 men early in the game.

Michael Olise provided assists for both goals - the first a corner and the second following a free-kick - as Palace comfortably saw off a Bournemouth team who despite their 15th position in the Premier League table end 2022 as the worst team in the division according to Infogol's performance ratings.

Fulham 2-1 Southampton

• Infogol xG: 1.69-0.63
• Fairness rating: 96.10%
• Ward-Prowse OG 32', Palhinha 88' | Ward-Prowse 56'

A last-gasp Joao Palhinha goal condemned Southampton to a harsh 2-1 defeat, with the xG scoreline not quite reflective of the match itself.

After James Ward-Prowse scored at both ends it looked likely to end all square until Palhinha headed home the first 'big chance' (0.35 xG+) either side had created.

Aleksandar Mitrovic then missed a stoppage-time penalty (0.80) to give the xG scoreline a misleading look with some signs of progress, especially defensively, for new Saints boss Nathan Jones, whose side remain bottom.

Man City 1-1 Everton

• Infogol xG: 2.32-0.09
• Fairness rating: 56.67%
• Haaland 24' | Gray 64'

Everton left The Etihad with a point despite having just two shots, with Demarai Gray's stunning strike (rated at 6% probability by Infogol) their first of the game in the 64th minute. Their only other attempt came four minutes later when Andre Onana (3%) let fly from 35 yards.

Erling Haaland looked to have put Manchester City on course for victory with his 27th goal in just 21 appearances for the club but the champions were ultimately punished for their wastefulness.

Haaland (0.31) and John Stones (0.31) both missed significant chances before Rodri (0.41) had a huge opportunity in the 13th-minute of stoppage time but could only head wide from a corner.

Newcastle 0-0 Leeds

• Infogol xG: 2.84-0.53
• Fairness rating: 60.35%

Fabian Schar wasted a hat-trick of chances - amounting to an xG total of 0.68 - as Leeds denied Newcastle a seventh straight league win.

Sven Botman (0.30) and Chris Wood (0.38) were also on the end of significant opportunities but the Magpies’ best opportunity fell to defender Dan Burn (0.69) who from inside the six-yard box somehow skewed the ball wide.

Leeds, on the other hand, failed to create a single 'big chance' (0.35 xG+) but a fine save was needed from Nick Pope to deny a great effort from Rodrigo.

Brighton 2-4 Arsenal

• Infogol xG: 1.34-3.36
• Fairness rating: 96.36%
• Mitoma 65', Ferguson 77' | Saka 2', Odegaard 39', Nketiah 47', Martinelli 71'

Arsenal ended the year in emphatic fashion by sweeping Brighton aside at the Amex with a victory that was fully justified both according to the eye test and expected goals.

Perhaps most impressive was the lack of opportunities Mikel Arteta's men allowed Brighton in the opening half, restricting them to just 0.11 xG as they reached the break 2-0 to the good.

Only when Albion began throwing caution to the wind at 3-0 down did they begin to create opportunities against a Gunners team who far superior and fully capitalised on Manchester City's failure to beat Everton earlier in the day.

Arsenal will start 2023 having won 14 of their 16 matches, seven points clear of champions Manchester City at the top of the table.

More from Sporting Life

• Fixtures, results and live scores
• Expert xG analysis and features
• Transfer news and done deals
• Football and other sports tips
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Podcasts and video content