Former Football League sides Wrexham and Grimsby meet in the National League play-off semi-final on Saturday. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and a best bet.
Just two wins away – Wrexham and Grimsby can almost taste a return to the Football League, but one will fall by the wayside after Saturday lunchtime’s play-off semi-final at the Racecourse Ground.
Will the Hollywood script of Wrexham owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney move a step closer to completion or can Grimsby upset the Dragons like they did Notts County on Monday?
The bookies are firmly in the Welsh camp, the hosts heavy favourites at a best-priced 13/20, and when you look at the statistics, that’s understandable.
Wrexham finished second, four places and 11 points above the Mariners, and have been imperious at home – a record of W15 D6 L1 the National League’s second best – while Grimsby have been average away.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
A Wrexham win is certainly the probable outcome here but Grimsby’s impressive and thoroughly deserved win at County gives pause for thought. The 29/20 on Double Chance Grimsby or Draw is certainly worth consideration.
Add to that the fact the Dragons have lost their past two games – their final league game 3-0 at Dagenham & Redbridge plus a 1-0 FA Trophy final defeat to Bromley.
If you do fancy the hosts, however, the best bet would be to pair a Wrexham win with both teams to score at 5/2 – the Dragons’ matches this season have averaged a mammoth 3.11 goals per game.
However, given it’s fair to expect Wrexham will score in this one – as they did in 39 of 44 games during the regular season, racking up 91 goals in the process – I prefer to focus on the goalscorer markets.
Paul Mullin is their top scorer with 26 goals in 39 games but Ollie Palmer has hit 15 in 21 since joining from AFC Wimbledon in January – both are averaging a goal around every 1.5 games.
So it’s a surprise to me that some firms separate the pair in the first scorer markets, favouring Mullin over his equally capable partner.
Indeed, it’s been Palmer who Wrexham have relied on for a breakthrough in recent months, with seven of his 15 goals being openers – since he scored on his debut against, ironically, Grimsby.
Mullin is a best-priced 10/3 to open the scoring but bet365 go 5/1 on OLLIE PALMER TO SCORE FIRST. We can take that to each way terms with their 1-98 place offer which equates to scoring anytime.
Wrexham v Grimsby score prediction and best bet
- Ollie Palmer to score first at 5/1 (bet365) (e.w. terms 1-98 places 1/3 odds)
Score prediction: Wrexham 2-1 Grimsby (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct 1500 BST (26/05/22)
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