Croatia and Morocco may not be competing for the big prize this weekend, but they will be up for the third place play-off nonetheless. James Cantrill provides a bet.
- LISTEN: World Cup final and third place play-off best bets
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Football betting tips: World Cup Third Place Play-off
2pts Under 2.5 goals at evens (Vbet)
0.5pts No first goalscorer at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
Admittedly, France v Argentina is a final for the ages, two great football nations going toe-to-toe on the world stage.
Lionel Messi sizing up the young pretender Kylian Mbappe in his last dance, as he looks to seize his final chance of World Cup success.
And while that will be a distinguished contest, it just does not have the charm of Croatia v Morocco's third place play-off bout, one for the purists.
If these nations typify everything that is mystifying about the game, then Sofyan Amrabat's tackle on Mbappe typifies the resilience that got the Atlas Lions to the last four, because as their manager Walid Regragui puts it, "you cannot win the World Cup on miracles."
It was a tackle of brutal beauty.
Mbappe rode a challenge and appeared to leave Amrabat in his wake, he turned on the afterburners and the Moroccan midfield maestro disappeared out of the TV shot.
With Mbappe almost on the byline, the ceaseless Amrabat re-emerged to crunch into the tackle, leaving Les Bleus talismans in a heap on the floor.
The midfielder then had the composure to regain his balance and the ball and pick out a pass.
Keeping up with Mbappe is one thing, but to do so after needed injections to make back pain barrable is another.
Kylian Mbappe turned on turbo mode 🔥
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) December 14, 2022
But Sofyan Amrabat wasn't having any of it 😤#BBCFootball #BBCWorldCup pic.twitter.com/tsg522acmg
Unfortunately, the same circumstances that make the tackle so impressive, are also what made Morocco reaching the final so unlikely.
Though the North African's have never used it as an excuse, the injuries were adding up.
Amrabat has not been fully fit for any of the knock-out stages, Romain Saiss was forced off in the first half of the semi's and Noussair Mazraoui at half time.
Sofiane Boufal and Youssef En-Nesyri could not last the 90 and Hakim Ziyech was playing with his right thigh strapped up.
With so many casualties, it has hard to see how a patched up side make it past this wily Croatian side.
That being said, Morocco's spirit has won the hearts of many and I do not think they will bow out of the tournament with a whimper.
They bested Belgium, Spain and Portugal on route to the semi-s, edging low scoring affairs and I think we're set for another one here which is why I am siding with UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
In Qatar, Morocco have only conceded three goals with two or fewer scored on five occasions and two stalemates.
They have shipped an xGA of 6.84, which suggests they have been fortunate, but if you break that figure down further, I would argue the contrary.
Opponents have averaged 0.12 xG per shot, alluding to the low quality chances the Atlas Lions give away, with Randal Muani's goal against them generating the greatest xG total (0.60).
Theo Hernandez became the first opposition player to find the net against Morocco since Regragui took charge nine matches ago, prior to that game, backing NO FIRST GOALSCORER would have paid out in 40% of Morocco's World Cup games.
It is worth noting that this bet landed when these sides met in the group stages, one of three times it has clicked in the Croatian's World Cup campaign.
Opting for 'no first goalscorer' over the 0-0 correct score is better because it means that if the only goal of the game is an own goal, the bet is still paid out as a winner.
Croatia v Morocco best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 goals at 1/1 (Vbet)
- 0.5pts No first goalscorer at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Croatia 0-0 Morocco (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (15/12/22)
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