The best bet on Malta v England lies in the bookings markets, says Andy Schooler, who's also got a 15/2 tip in the Northern Ireland clash.
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England start their season in Malta on Friday, one they will hope will finish at the World Cup final in July in Moscow.
I won’t be putting any money on the latter and neither will I be part of the throng the bookies love – those who pile into England win such fixtures by big scorelines.
Malta are among the many ‘minnows’ across Europe who have learned how to frustrate more-talented opponents and that was in evidence in the reverse fixture at Wembley, one which England won comfortably enough, but only by two goals to nil.
England’s inability to really crush lowly-ranked opposition is a long-standing issue and they certainly have not had the results of say, Germany, in matches like this. It is not just something related to Gareth Southgate’s stewardship.
Anyone considering backing them to win by five goals or more needs to know that the Three Lions have beaten only one side by more than four goals in their last 57 internationals, that team being San Marino, who are considerably worse than the Maltese.
England will win this game and while you could choose your margin of victory – picking 2-0 or 3-0, or even both, could well reward – the bookies are very much all over that market (one in which there’s little room for error) and there appears to be little value to be had.
The same cannot be said for some of the disciplinary markets and this looks like the angle to plunder in this game.
Six games into European qualifying, Malta sit top of the ‘bad boys’ chart. They’ve had no fewer than four red cards so far and numerous yellows.
Their disciplinary points make-ups so far have been (most recent first): 40-55-50-55-10-70.
That immediately makes both 30 or more at 5/4 and 40 or more at 3/1 make clear appeal. As you can see, both marks have been breached in five of their six qualifiers so far.
For those not in the know, it’s 10 points for a yellow card and 25 for a red.
I’ll plump for the smaller price, one which has been hit purely in terms of yellows in their last four fixtures, but I won’t out anyone off the 3/1 given the stats.
England are currently two points clear at the top of Group F and may well be able to stretch their lead on Friday as second-placed Slovakia host third-placed Slovenia on the same night.
That game will also be of big interest to Scotland and their fans. They sit fourth – four points off the second place they will need in order to reach November’s play-offs.
Given the fixtures remaining, Scotland are still very much in the hunt but they will almost certainly need to win away to Lithuania.
They are odds-on to do so but this is the sort of game the Scots have looked back on with regret for years and I can’t be going near them at the price.
They’ve visited Vilnius four times in the past but only once have they come away with three points. They also struggled massively against them in the game at Hampden last October when a late James McArthur equaliser was required to earn them a 1-1 draw.
I’d much prefer to side with the other UK team, Northern Ireland, although you won’t get rich quick in many of the markets for their game in San Marino – they start at between 1/16 and 1/150 to claim another three points as they move closer to a place in Russia.
San Marino are probably Europe’s worst side. They’ve conceded 30 goals in six qualifiers so far. Northern Ireland will almost certainly add to that tally but perhaps not considerably.
Like England, despite claiming some notable scalps in recent years, they don’t tear sides apart and you only have to think back to the game in Belfast to see how they will likely have to work hard for victory. On that occasion, they opened the scoring on 26 minutes but only ended 4-0 winners thanks to three goals in the last 12 minutes.
The aggregate of their three previous meetings is 11-0 which gives you some idea of what can be expected – 3-0 is the favourite scoreline at just north of 4/1.
Some goals can certainly be expected and with that in mind I’m going to take a speculative punt on one of the team’s scorers in that reverse fixture bagging the opener.
Steven Davis did so in that 4-0 win and he’s 15/2 for a repeat in this one.
The midfielder has been a driving force in this team for some time and he was man of the match against these opponents last October.
He takes the penalties – it was a spot kick which put Northern Ireland ahead in the aforementioned clash – but has also shown he can net from open play. In his last 19 internationals, the Southampton star has scored four goals which is a pretty tidy return and now he’s going up against weak opponents who offer another opportunity to improve that statistic.
Davis is 2/1 to score at any time but I’ll take the chance on him striking first at 15/2.
It’s no surprise to see Kyle Lafferty top of the market, particularly given his strong start to the season for Hearts, but while he’s scored 11 times in his last 24 international appearances, only three of those have been the opener.
Given he’s as short as 15/8 and no bigger than 14/5, I’ll take him on with Davis.
Posted at 2115 BST on 30/08/17.
