Japan take on Croatia in the round of 16 and Jake Osgathorpe picks out six stats to include in a BuildABet.
- Marcelo Brozovic 2+ total shots
- Junya Ito 2+ tackles
- Daichi Kamada 1+ Offsides
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What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
- Predicted % chance: Japan 21% | Draw 27% | Croatia 52%
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 40% | Under 60%
- Both teams to score (BTTS): Yes 43% | No 57%
Marcelo Brozovic 2+ total shots
Croatia's holding midfielder will likely not be doing much holding in this game, given the fact that Japan are fully expected to concede position and sit in a deep block and counter attack - just as they did against Germany and Spain.
If that does occur, then Marcelo Brozovic looks good to rack up 2+ shots, with the Inter Milan man liking a pop from distance, which will likely be what Croatia are restricted to.
He hit this line even in Croatia's last game against Belgium, where they were on the back-foot throughout.
Junya Ito 2+ tackles
Junya Ito has played right wing and right wing-back at the tournament for Japan, and he has impressed, making himself known to the opposition.
He has averaged 1.7 tackles per game at Qatar, hitting 2+ in both games against Germany and Spain, and more of the same can be expected here.
Daichi Kamada 1+ Offsides
Daichi Kamada is one of Japan's biggest threats in transitions, and given the likely flow of this game, Croatia will play with a high line that could result in a few offsides.
Kamada will be looking to run in behind and exploit the space given to him, so chancing him to be flagged offside at least once appeals.
This landed in both games against Germany and Spain.
Both Teams to Score
The round of 16 at the World Cup tends to produce a lot of games which see both teams hit the net.
Since 2010, 58% of last 16 ties saw BTTS land and already, both Netherlands v USA and Argentina v Australia have clicked for BTTS backers.
This game should be no different, with two capable attacking sides going head-to-head, and game state dictating that if one team goes in front, the other must get the kitchen sink and throw it.
Japan 2+ Offsides
This game is likely to be dominated by Croatia from a possession standpoint, with Japan happy to cede possession and counter attack - just as they did to great effect when beating both Germany and Spain.
Against Germany, the Blue Samurai were flagged offside four times, while against Spain they were caught twice. There is no reason to think this game against another strong European side will be any different in terms of pattern.
Croatia 14+ total shots
With Japan likely to sit deep in a bid to play on the counter attack, Croatia will likely get the ball in and around their opponents' box, which could lead to them racking up plenty of shots.
They have plenty of players who love to pull the trigger from distance, which only helps with the shot line of 14+.
Japan have allowed 25 and 14 shots to Germany and Spain respectively, and in a game that could play out in a similar fashion, Croatia can pile up the attempts too.
Odds correct at 2145 GMT (03/12/22)
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