Free betting tips: Saturday World Cup qualifiers

Football

Sat October 07, 2017 · 7y ago

Ben Coley previews Saturday's World Cup qualifiers, with Greece poised to steal second place in Group H.

Group H is fascinatingly poised heading into Saturday's penultimate round of fixtures, and much may depend on how seriously Belgium take things in Bosnia.

The Red Devils were the first European side to qualify for next summer's World Cup having clicked under Roberto Martinez, who is getting the best out of those Premier League players he knows so well and who make up a seriously talented squad.

Martinez will not have Romelu Lukaku available as his side look to make it eight wins from nine matches but, having won the reverse 4-0 and with depth enough to cope without the Manchester United striker, they're still tempting here at 13/8.

Should Belgium fail to engage top gear then of course this is a fine opportunity for Bosnia to take a stranglehold on second place in the group and their home record is encouraging. With Edin Dzeko in scintillating form - he's scored 10 goals in as many matches this season, failing to find the net in just three - it's not the greatest shock that the home side are being supported and look set to start favourites.

Yet they are eight points behind Belgium from as many games, a deficit which tells us which side is classier, and incentive alone may not be enough. Belgium kept on winning when they'd wrapped up a place at Euro 2016 which, interestingly enough, is partly why Bosnia were able to scrape a play-off place by finishing third in the same section.

But rather than back the visitors here, I'll rely on them at least managing a draw and instead support Greece for a top-two finish in the group at 7/4 ahead of their clash with neighbours Cyprus.

Currently one point behind Bosnia and with an inferior goal difference, Greece will on the face of it need to improve having failed to truly build on a fine start to qualifying, in which they won their first three games impressively.

However, their winless run since is no disgrace. Michael Skibbe's men drew with Bosnia and Belgium, almost snatching three points at the latter having been the only side in the group to lay a glove on them, before further stalemates with Bosnia and then Estonia.

Last time out they lost 2-1 to a flying Belgium side who had scored nine goals just three days earlier, so it's only their failure to score against Estonia which can be levelled against Greece.

On that front, the return of Kostas Mitroglou could be massive. The Marseille man is by some distance the classiest striker in the squad and while potentially undercooked having returned from injury in the Europa League just over a week ago, his very presence in the side seems likely to add impetus to everything Greece do.

It's also encouraging to see attacking midfielder Lazaros Christodoulopoulos recalled having inspired AEK Athens to victory over Olympiakos two weeks ago. He scored a superb free-kick that day and adds definite flair to a side who have long been known for their abilities at the back.

Greece are not certainties to win in Cyprus, but they did beat their rivals pretty convincingly in the reverse and can be fancied to do so again.

What's really interesting is that they're no bigger than 8/15 here, before a closing clash with Gibraltar, who have lost all eight games by an average margin of 4.25 goals. In other words, it's at best 4/7 that Greece pick up six points from their final two games to reach 19 in total.

That would leave Bosnia needing to win both games to fend them off. As mentioned the first is against Belgium, but even if coming through that with maximum points they then have to travel to Estonia, who are solid enough on home soil and appear to have turned a corner of late.

One way or another, I think that Greece will finish second if they win their last two games. So, let's take 7/4 (Winner) or even the alternative 6/4 (BetVictor) that they manage a top-two finish which at the time of writing appeals as considerable value.

In Group B, Switzerland look false leaders - if such a thing exists - despite having won all eight games so far. They're just three points ahead of the European champions, Portugal, who are 1/33 and shorter to win at Andorra as surely they will.

Even if Switzerland beat Hungary, which they did 3-2 a year ago, they would still need a positive result in Portugal in the final game of the round. It's a watching brief for now but nevertheless a surprise that Portugal are just a shade of odds-on to top the group. There are two ways this best can collect and at worst, you'll have 5/6 Portugal to beat Switzerland on Tuesday.

The best bet elsewhere comes in Group A, though, where World Cup gambles France are not yet certain to qualify for next summer's finals.

Granted, they will expect to get something at Bulgaria before beating Belarus in Paris, but those with fancy ante-post positions might be made to sweat just a little over the coming days.

However, I'm more interested in Sweden running riot against Luxembourg, which they've every incentive to do.

Essentially, the Swedes will be guaranteed second at worst if they score freely on Saturday. They are three points ahead of third-placed Netherlands, over whom they already have a six-goal advantage, and can render their meeting in the final game of the group virtually insignificant.

Luxembourg have managed five points and have pride to play for as they currently sit fifth of six, ahead of Belarus on goal difference, but they are usually vulnerable on the road despite a shock 0-0 draw with France in September.

They lost 5-0 in the Netherlands and shipped four at Bulgaria, so Sweden, who beat them just 1-0 in the reverse but spurned a hatful of chances, will be licking their lips at the prospect of getting down to business.

Sweden are the top scorers in the group despite being absent of Zlatan and there should be no taking the foot off the pedal here. As such, back them at 6/5 to cover a three-goal handicap rather than odds-on to get four or more. I expect they'll win without conceding but they're capable of scoring enough to cover the difference regardless.