Andy Schooler is looking to take on Wales and the Republic of Ireland - to some extent - in his preview of Friday's World Cup qualifiers.
Two wins in September took Wales into second place in their World Cup qualifying group as they got their hopes of playing in Russia next summer back on track.
However, don’t be fooled into thinking the hard work has now been done.
They still have two tricky fixtures to negotiate – they head to Georgia on Friday (1700 BST) before hosting the Republic of Ireland on Monday – and even if both matches are won there remains a chance they could miss out as the unlucky ‘ninth team’ with only eight of the group runners-up progressing to the play-offs. As things stand, that, somewhat worryingly, is the position they find themselves in.
That will hardly be playing on the mind in Tbilisi where the Welsh head without talisman Gareth Bale, who misses out due to injury.
While many will tell you there’s plenty of quality in the Wales squad these days, the fact is that losing your best player – indeed one of the world’s best – would hurt any team.
Expect Bale’s absence to be played down over the next few days but refreshingly honest team-mate Dave Edwards gave an insight into what goes through the other players’ minds in such circumstances, stating this week that “your heart sinks a little bit (when hearing the news)”.
One reason to be optimistic is the emergence of teenager Ben Woodburn, who made a real impact in last month’s qualifiers. There looks every chance he’ll fill in for Bale.
However, Georgia are no mugs. They may not have won any of their eight qualifiers thus far but they have joined in the group trend of drawing games – it’s five for them thus far, the same number as Wales.
That’s 63 per cent of games drawn in this campaign by these sides, even higher than the 46 per cent across the group as a whole.
Another draw is priced up at 12/5 and certainly looks the way to go in the match result market.
The hosts drew with Ireland (at home) and Austria (away) in last month’s qualifiers and were impressive in the reverse fixture in Cardiff when they were somewhat disappointed not to leave with something better than a 1-1 draw.
They had more shots – 17 to 13 – in that game and came close to winning it when Valeri Qazaishvili hit the bar late on.
Qazaishvili is a potential value shout in the goalscorer markets in this one (he’s 10/1 for the first and 17/4 to net at any time). From an attacking midfield role to support a lone striker, he’s bagged three goals in the campaign already and since joining MLS side San Jose in July has scored four goals in 11 games in the US.
He troubled Wales in that first game and around 4/1 does look big about a player who has scored in home games against both Ireland and Moldova.
He’ll be up against a Wales defence led by Ashley Williams, a player woefully out of sorts at Everton. Williams has been making elementary mistakes for his club in recent weeks and another here could well be capitalised upon by Qazaishvili.
A small anytime bet is the call.
If Wales do slip up, Republic of Ireland will have the chance to overtake them when they kick off at 1945 BST in Dublin against Moldova.
They are no bigger than 1/9 to beat a team which has picked up just two points so far, losing six of their eight fixtures. All six defeats have come by at least two goals.
However, that said, there’s every reason to believe Ireland won’t have things all their own way.
They will undoubtedly be feeling the pressure, whatever the result of the early game, and also have a host of selection issues to deal with.
Jonathan Walters is out injured, Kevin Doyle has been forced into retirement and both Robbie Brady and James McClean are suspended. In addition, James McCarthy and Harry Arter are both doubts and in any case the former is yet to play this season.
That’s plenty for Martin O’Neill to deal with, most notably in the attacking area of his team.
He’s left with Shane Long but the Southampton man has not scored for club or country since February and with that in mind those heading to the goalscorer markets would do well to consider Daryl Murphy, who has scored in six of 11 Championship games for Nottingham Forest this season, and Conor Hourihane.
Murphy is, however, odds-on across the board to score in this one so the value could lie with Hourihane, who will bid to threaten the goal with runs from a deeper position. The Aston Villa midfielder has scored five goals in 10 Championship games so far this term and is 23/10 to find the target.
Those prices are short enough for me though given I’m not convinced the visitors will be rolled over. Indeed, I’m tempted by the 9/4 offered about Moldova (+2) on the handicap.
However, I’m going to go for a longer-odds punt with 13/2 about a 1-0 win to the hosts tempting in the circumstances.
Even when they’ve had much greater forward options, Ireland have managed to score just two goals in four Dublin qualifiers so far. They have also conceded just two, while Moldova have scored just once on their travels.
Throw in the likely nervous atmosphere at the Aviva Stadium and the narrow, low-scoring home win makes appeal at the price.
Where to watch on TV: Both games will be shown live in the UK on Sky Sports.
Recommended bets
2pts draw in Georgia v Wales at 12/5
1pt Valeri Qazaishvili to score at any time v Wales at 17/4
1pt Republic of Ireland to beat Moldova 1-0 at 13/2
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Posted at 1610 BST on 04/10/17.
