World Cup 2022: Things we learned from the group stage

By Liam Kelly

Football

Tue December 06, 2022 · 2y ago

With a riveting World Cup group stage now concluded, Liam Kelly derives punting pointers from the games played for the round of 16 fixtures.

Brazil keeping it clean

The utter control Brazil have held in games is a good chunk of the reason why the Seleção have furthered their chances of winning the World Cup and continue to shorten in the outright market.

Limiting Serbia to 0.22 xG, Switzerland to 0.42 xG and Cameroon to 0.90 xG with changes made to the team is evidence of Tite’s side exhibiting that control, allowing just 18 shots in Group G.

Patience is clearly a virtue for Brazil, too, ending each half of the group games goalless before exerting real pressure after the break.

Aside from a late Cameroon winner, it has resulted in their own goal being rarely tested, which should again be the case against South Korea in the Round of 16.

Indeed, Brazil to keep a clean sheet is certainly of interest despite the short price.

South Korea were held goalless comfortably by Uruguay in their opener, only appeared a threat when benefitting from game state against an awful Ghana defence and were rather disappointing going forward in a must-win game versus a much-changed Portugal team.

It’s difficult to envision where they can trouble the best team in the tournament to this point.

England set-piece strength

Perhaps the best way to describe England’s World Cup campaign thus far is in the infamous words of one Gennaro Gattuso — sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit.

While I’m not enthused about Gareth Southgate’s conservative nature, which will undoubtedly be on show in the knockout rounds, or the current level that England appear to be playing at, advancing past Senegal should be an uncomplicated task for this Three Lions team.

Although attacking impetus has been inconsistent under Southgate for a long time, one thing that has regularly been a positive feature for England is set-piece success.

Granted, England have only cashed in on a long-range free-kick from such situations in this tournament, but the data suggests a set-piece goal and/or assist is a distinct possibility in this match-up for both Harry Maguire and John Stones.

England have amassed 1.59 xG from attacking set-pieces in their three matches, while Senegal have shipped chances equating to 1.22 xG in defensive set-piece situations.

I’ll leave the choice of bet to the reader, but it’s certainly an area of note when selecting a wager.

USA the play

I must admit I was eagerly anticipating markets for the Netherlands v USA almost immediately after the latter had qualified for the Round of 16 by beating Iran 1-0, hoping for a fair price on the Americans to qualify.

A range of bookmakers duly delivered, offering ~2/1 for a team that, in my opinion, is better at this moment in time.

Despite gaining seven points in Group A, the Netherlands have been far from impressive barring Cody Gakpo, with the Dutch looking rather insipid going forward.

Louis van Gaal's side needed two late goals to beat Senegal, attempted just two shots equating to a measly 0.11 xG against Ecuador and were wholly uninspiring while fielding a strong team in a 2-0 win over hosts Qatar.

USA's stock, on the other hand, is on the rise.

Not only have Gregg Berhalter's side been superior in all three group matches in the World Cup thus far, but their underlying numbers suggest USA will be extremely tough to beat in the knockout stages.

Aside from a shaky spell in the second half when hanging on to a lead versus Wales, the Americans have displayed defensive solidity, conceding zero goals and just 1.79 xG across the 225+ minutes.

That isn't so surprising considering the strength of the USA in almost every position. A substantive striker is still an issue for Berhalter, though, who is seemingly still trying to find the right man.

With that in mind, greed has consumed me. Adding under 3.5 goals in regulation time to USA to qualify through bet-building means makes appeal.

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