Joe Townsend has a preview and best bets as Burnley look for their first win of the Premier League season when they host Crystal Palace on Monday.
Recommended bets
1pt Chris Wood to score first at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Burnley v Crystal Palace
- 17:30 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 17/10 | Draw 21/10 | Away 17/10
Historically this has been a classic midtable meeting between two teams renowned for being tough to beat. But they head into this clash having had very different starts to the season.
Burnley have collected just two points from seven matches, while Crystal Palace have raced onto 13 from their opening eight.
The Clarets have scored only three goals, nine fewer than a Roy Hodgson team that has added extra flair to their disciplined performances of recent years; few would have thought it possible for Palace to enjoy such a superb start despite conceding 12 goals and keeping only one clean sheet.
That being said, I expect them to revert to type against Burnley in a similar to free-scoring Tottenham, who battened down the hatches and ultimately succeeded in their battle to escape with a 1-0 victory.
Sean Dyche does seem to be getting his side closer to where he'd like them to be defensively, with two clean sheets and that hard-fought defeat by Spurs among their last four results. But at the other end of the pitch it's worrying as they've netted only once in seven games in all competitions.
The 8/13 price on under 2.5 goals is a fair one, especially given that this fixture tends to be tight and low-scoring. In their last seven meetings, only once has there been over 2.5 goals or have both teams scored.
With a home and away win priced as equal favourite, and the contest difficult to call, I don't like the outright in this one. On a value basis, if I had to pin my colours somewhere I'd take the draw at 5/2 although I'm edging towards a narrow Burnley win.
But really it's a market to avoid for a game where any result involving under 2.5 goals will surprise no-one. My preference instead is to take that 8/13 with a hefty slice, and also white knuckle it by backing this to be an under 1.5 goals contest at 2/1 with Paddy Power.
Should the Clarets go another game without collecting three points, then the alarm bells should really start ringing for Dyche. The facts show that he is getting his defence sorted out, but it's now time for his forwards to step up.
I like the value in Chris Wood being that man on Monday evening.
The New Zealand international has so far lacked the clinical edge that helped him score 38 goals in his first three seasons at Turf Moor, but he is still getting in the right positions.
Only Leeds striker Patrick Bamford (6) has missed more clear-cut chances than Wood (4) in the Premier League this season, and his three shots against the woodwork is bettered by only Brighton's Leandro Trossard (4).
I'm backing him to find the net for the first time since Burnley's opening game, and it a match tipped to be a low-scoring that has to be as first goalscorer at a general price of 9/2. If you prefer to take him anytime, the best price is 15/8 with Betway.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (20/11/20)
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