Tom Carnduff looks at the betting as Wolves and West Brom meet in their first Black Country derby for eight years.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Wolves (-1 handicap) to beat West Brom at 15/8
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Wolves v West Brom
- 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 11/20 | Draw 14/5 | Away 11/2
It feels quite remarkable that we haven't had this derby match in over eight years. You have to go back to 2012 for the last time Wolves and West Brom met, where the Baggies secured a memorable 5-1 victory at Molineux. Based on this season, we should see something far different this time around.
West Brom are a bad team and even a managerial change has does little to suggest that things are going to get better anytime soon. They are already six points away from safety and it's a real possibility that they will finish bottom of the table.
Wolves have endured a poor campaign by their usual standards but there is some acceptance that this was a bit of a transition period for the club as they welcomed in younger players. Nuno Espirito Santo is also said to want a smaller squad to work with and that will take some time to adjust to.
This game gives them a great opportunity to end a five-game winless run in the Premier League. Their form has seen them drop down to 14th in the table, and perhaps top-half is the new objective given their first part of the campaign, but they are still a considerably better team than West Brom.
West Brom have conceded a huge total of 39 goals with just eleven in response. At the time of writing, unless some unlikely move happens before midday on Friday, Callum Robinson will be the only recognised striker available in the squad. Goals were already a big issue before that.
Wolves are hardly prolific scorers but they are near enough 1/2 for victory here. Even with striker issues of their own, the 15/8 available on them winning with a -1 handicap is where the best bet can be found. The hosts are currently -1 on the Asian Handicap.
Four of West Brom's last five league defeats have been by at least a two-goal margin. They were hammered 4-0 by Arsenal and 5-0 by Leeds, two teams who are close to Wolves in the Premier League standings. Their away form is disastrous, picking up just three points from a possible 24.
In Wolves, they face a team in the top-half of the home standings with just one defeat in their last four at Molineux in all competitions. While games involved Santo's men tend to be close on the scoreline, they did win by two goals against both Crystal Palace and Sheffield United.
I would have been tempted to go for Draw/Wolves in the HT/FT market at a price of 17/5 given Wolves' involvement but I just don't trust the Baggies to be able to get to a game level at the break given their recent showings. They were even losing at half-time against Sky Bet League One side Blackpool in the FA Cup.
We could search around the markets but that Wolves -1 price is good enough to back. That's not to say it should be a game where Wolves win by a significant amount, but they should be beating this West Brom team with a comfortable couple of goals margin.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-0 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Wolves v West Brom best bets
Opta facts
- Wolves and West Brom haven’t met in the Premier League since a 5-1 win for the Baggies at Molineux in February 2012, their biggest away league win against Wolves since 1962.
- West Brom haven’t won consecutive away league matches against Wolves since a run of three between 1929 and 1931, though this is their first Molineux visit since 2012.
- Wolves have won eight of their last 10 Premier League games against promoted sides (D1 L1), with their only defeat in that time coming at Sheffield United last season. At home, they’re unbeaten in eight such games (W5 D3) since a 0-3 loss to QPR in September 2011.
- After netting five goals in their first three league games this season, West Brom have netted just six in their last 14, and never more than once in a match in that time.
- Wolves have won each of their last six home Premier League games against teams starting the day in the relegation zone without conceding a single goal, since losing 2-0 to Huddersfield Town in November 2018.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (14/01/21)
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