Top-four chasing Wolves host struggling Leicester on Super Sunday. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leicester to win at 5/2 (General)
At the time of writing Wolves are six points behind fourth place Manchester United with two games in hand. Leicester, by contrast, are 16 points adrift of the Champions League places, not to mention ten points behind the team that will host them on Sunday afternoon.
Asked at the beginning of the season which of these two would be perusing a spot in the top four, and which would be sat in the bottom half of the table come mid-February, you would be hard pushed to find many who predicted it the correct way around.
For Wolves it has been a tremendous first season under the leadership of Bruno Lage, the Portuguese manager building on the solid foundations laid by Nuno Espirito Santo and transforming the Old Gold into genuine top-four contenders.
For Leicester, the decline has been stark. Not since 2016/17 have the Foxes amassed fewer points at this stage of a Premier League season, while 41 goals conceded across 22 matches is the most they have conceded at this point of a campaign since their return to the top flight in 2014.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Wolves 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Leicester 12/5
In fact, statistically speaking, Leicester currently boast the worst Premier League defence since Infogol began collating data, as per expected goals (xG), allowing an average of 2.04 xGA per match; it does not take a data analyst to uncover the roots of Leicester’s problems.
Yet, despite conceding the fifth most goals in the league this season, as well as the most chances, the Foxes remain in eleventh position in the table, mainly due to their attacking prowess.
Only the current top five in the division have netted more times than Brendan Rodgers’ men this season, and though Wolves have been supremely impressive at the back this season – only Manchester City have conceded fewer – Wanderers’ defensive numbers are slightly misleading.
While 17 goals against is a terrific return through 23 matches, no team has overperformed their xGA (expected goals against) more drastically than Wolves this season – the chances they have conceded suggesting their total number of goals conceded should be closer to 31 (an 83% overperformance) – and against an extremely clinical Leicester team, they will not need to give up to many chances to find themselves behind.
Are Leicester a good price to win?
Against West Ham Leicester were reasonably impressive, particularly in the second half, and perhaps unfortunate to see Craig Dawson equalise from a corner late on, something that has been a recurring issue for the Foxes this term.
Whether Leicester will win this match is not the question to be asking yourself, however. More pertinent is how likely are Leicester to win this match?
Quantifying a team’s chances of winning in probabilistic terms is never easy, so the simplest way is to begin on level footing.
Two equally matched teams should theoretically be priced at 7/4 (2.75), with the draw at 27/10 (3.7).
This season in the Premier League, home teams have scored on average 0.24 more goals than away team, giving us a home advantage figure.
With the home advantage applied to two equally matched teams, the new prices become Home - 11/8 (2.36) / Draw – 11/4 (3.74) / Away 9/4 (3.24).
Now we have accurate prices for equally matched teams, taking into account home field advantage, we can pit them against the prices on offer in this particular fixture.
The big question is are Wolves and Leicester evenly matched?
While the points difference in the league may suggest otherwise, in terms of a one-off match, considering the players and managers of both teams, it is difficult to ascertain that Lage’s men are indeed a completely superior outfit to Rodgers’ side.
With all this taken into account, the 5/2 (3.5) about LEICESTER TO WIN looks on the large side, and in fact, if you do consider these two to be of a similar ability, offers an expected value (EV) of +8.15% against the 9/4 price we arrived at previously.
Wolves v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Leicester to win at 5/2 (General)
Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1445 GMT (17/02/21)
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