Everton travel to Molineux to take on Wolves in Monday Night Football. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Over 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (bet365, BetVictor)
Everton were tipped up to win this fixture in Monday’s Beat The Market column, and with the price of 13/5 no longer available, betting on the 1X2 market is not advised. That doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found elsewhere, however.
Wolves have really picked up over the last month or so, in terms of results that is, unbeaten in their last four, winning three.
Many foresaw this upturn in form, as even in the early parts of the season, when Bruno Lage’s side started the season without a win or a goal in their opening three matches, they were posting very impressive numbers, generating an average of 2.01 expected goals for (xGF) per match.
Posting numbers like that meant that their goal drought was never sustainable, and that has proved to be the case, Lage’s men netting nine times in their six subsequent matches.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Wolves 6/5 | Draw 11/5 | Everton 12/5
Wolves’ numbers have dropped off in their last six, somewhat ironically, averaging 0.2 xGF less than in their opening three, but the shrewd recruitment of Hwang Hee-chan has played a huge part in turning the tide.
Hwang has now scored four goals from an xG of 1.88, meaning he is the difference maker in this Wolves side.
Everton’s impressive start to the season has subsided slightly, registering back-to-back Premier League defeats for the first time since Rafa Benitez took charge, following their 1-0 loss at home to West Ham with another home loss against Watford last weekend.
There is a rather large possibility that the Watford match was a freak result however, losing 5-2 but in the lead and looking relatively comfortable up until the 78th minute.
13 minutes of delight for Watford has cast a slightly negative cloud over Goodison Park, but it is important not to overreact too much.
Despite the blips both teams have experienced this season, Wolves at the beginning of the season and Everton’s more recently, these are two sides looking well-equipped to challenge for a European place.
Wolves currently sit in fourth in Infogol’s expected positions table, while Everton are a little lower down in seventh.
Both sides have been good going forward, posting impressive attacking xG numbers, but while Wolves are yet to claim their full rewards for their build-up play, only the league’s top four, and Manchester United, have scored more goals than the Toffees this season (15).
Monday Night Football has been generally entertaining this season as far as goals are concerned, with 15 scored across the four matches, and just one going under the 2.5 goals mark, and another enthralling affair is expected this Monday.
Wolves’ misleading start to the season has skewed the figures somewhat, their opening six matches seeing fewer than three goals, as well as both teams to score failing to land in all six.
But two of their last three have gone over the 2.5 mark, with 10 goals scored in those games.
Everton’s figures are even more encouraging, 56% of their games this season going Over 2.5 goals, with Toffees matches also averaging 3.22 goals per game – the joint-fifth most in the league.
Premier League matches are averaging a higher amount of goals this season (2.8) than in either of the previous two, and in fact it is up on last season (2.69) by a fair amount.
The layers do not seem to have factored this in to the pricing as of yet though. Last season’s average price for Over 2.5 Goals in the Premier League was 1.87, but this season it is actually higher at 1.89.
Admittedly, this is a difficult game to predict, but price is a major factor in the selection.
Given the figures, it is surprising to see OVER 2.5 GOALS priced at as big as 13/10 – an implied probability of just 43.5% - and that has to be the bet in this game.
Wolves v Everton best bets and score prediction
- 1.5 pts Over 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (bet365, BetVictor)
Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1340 BST (29/10/21)
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