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Wolves v Crystal Palace tips: Premier League best bets and tips
Crystal Palace travel to Molineux to take on a Wolves side desperate to get their challenge for European football back on track. Jake Pearson thinks they can do just that.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Wolves to win at 11/8 (Spreadex)
After spending the vast majority of the season so far going neatly under the radar, the moment people began to take heed of Wolves’ Champions-League chasing credentials their results have taken a hit.
Four defeats in their last six, including back-to-back losses in their last two matches against direct rivals in the hunt for European football (Arsenal and West Ham) has left the Wanderers in eighth position and now seven points adrift of fourth-place Manchester United.
As for Crystal Palace, Patrick Vieira's side are still recovering form a bumpy patch through the middle of the season where they won just two of their fourteen matches.
That all changed with a trip to Vicarage Road a fortnight ago, the Eagles got back to winning ways against Roy Hodgson’s men, and they did so in style, putting four goals past the Hornets.
A draw with Burnley followed by an FA Cup victory over Stoke in midweek would follow, and Palace are now unbeaten in their last three in all competitions.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Wolves 13/10 | Draw 21/10 | Crystal Palace 23/10
The difference in the strength of schedule that these two have faced recently is a big caveat here though, and is one of the major reasons why form is not quite as all-encompassing as many perceive it to be when assessing future matches.
In truth, Wolves’ drop-off was always likely, the rate at which they have been conceding chances not quite matching up with the amount of goals they have actually conceded.
That is not to say their defensive process is bad, far from it, just that their recent results are what many may refer to as a regression towards the mean, rather than an underperformance as such.
That Bruno Lage’s men have lost the xG battle in each of their last three isn’t exactly encouraging, but against accomplished sides such as Leicester, Arsenal and West Ham, it is understandable.
While from Palace’s point of view, their 1-1 draw at home to Burnley in their last Premier League fixture was the only time across their last four matches they have won the xG battle, including against Watford (xG: WAT 1.68-0.72 CRY).
Ultimately, here are two efficient football teams, but there is no doubting that Wolves are the superior outfit, and as such should be shorter than they currently are to win this match.
Let's have a quick look at the underlying numbers:
With 2.77 the average amount of goals per match in the Premier League this season, that would suggest an expected goals total of 1.385 for two evenly matched teams.
The average home goals scored this term is 1.49, while 1.29 is the average amount for an away side.
Given those figures, home advantage is worth 0.2 of a goal, which recalibrates the goal expectancies to 1.485 home goals and 1.285 away goals.
These goal expectancies, when run through a poisson distribution formula, returns a home win at a price of 2.39 – Wolves’ current price is 11/8 (2.38).
This is therefore suggesting that the layers rate Wolves and Crystal Palace as equals. If you agree then do not bet, but if you think Lage’s men are a fundamentally better team than Crystal Palace, then a price of 11/8 about a WOLVES WIN should certainly be backed.
Wolves v Crystal Palace best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Wolves to win at 11/8 (Spreadex)
Score prediction: Wolves 2-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1420 GMT (02/03/22)
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