Mid-table bedfellows Wolves and Crystal Palace meet in the FA Cup on Friday night. Michael Beardmore has a preview and a best bet.
Wolves v Crystal Palace
Wolves welcome Crystal Palace to Molineux on Friday night in the third round of the FA Cup for what should be an important match for both teams.
I say “should” because Premier League managers often have the annoying habit of making wholesale changes for the Cup even when there is little else for their clubs to play for.
Wanderers and Palace fall firmly into that bracket, sitting 13th and 14th respectively in the Premier League, each a comfortable 11 points above trouble but with a push for Europe surely improbable.
The Cup therefore offers both their only real hope of success and if either manager takes this game significantly more serious than the other with their team selection, then I believe we have a winner.
That, of course, we won’t know until an hour before kick-off but with injuries piling up for both – Wolves’ Daniel Podence and Palace’s Jeffrey Schlupp the latest casualties – their options are limited.
Wolves did beat Palace 2-0 in October but that was the last time Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have kept a clean sheet, winning just two of the 10 games they’ve played since, hindered by the scary skull injury that has sidelined star striker Raul Jimenez.
The Eagles have been similarly up and down, crushing Leeds 4-1 and West Brom 5-1, claiming creditable draws versus Leicester and Tottenham but losing to Burnley and Newcastle. Oh and 7-0 to Liverpool.
The sides sit neck and neck in the league table on 22 points, each having an identical record of won six, drawn four and lost seven, Wolves edging Palace by a single goal on goal difference.
I can’t separate them either (I certainly don't like the odds-on price offered on a Wolves win, this is much closer than that) and I really fancy this one to go all the way, particularly if both teams treat this game as the season-saver that they should.
The draw is fairly priced at 9/4 and I would not put anyone off but I’m eyeing extra value at more than twice the price, 5/1, for the scores to be level after extra time and the tie to be decided by spot-kicks.
If you fancy a gamble either way which team will win on penalties, you can get 11/1 on Wolves and 12/1 on Palace but I’m happy to perch on that particular fence and sit back to watch the predicted shoot-out with a guaranteed profit.
It’s worth keeping an eye out for the teamsheets in this one – if Palace talisman Wilfried Zaha starts, check if he’s still the 8/1 (or anywhere near) to net first with Bet365 that he was at the time of writing.
Zaha could be one of the players Roy Hodgson opts to rest but if he is in the starting XI, that’s a crazy price on a player who has twice as many goals this term (8) as anyone else on the pitch.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Wolves v Crystal Palace best bets
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (06/01/21)
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