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Serbia v Scotland: Can Steve Clarke's side end Scotland's long wait and reach Euro 2021?
After 22 years of waiting, it all comes down to one match on Thursday night for Scotland.
The country’s major tournament drought has been a long one, with the 1998 World Cup the last time the Tartan Army were invited to the party. Beat Serbia this week, though, and Scotland will have a place at next summer’s European Championships.
Scotland have had this playoff opportunity in their back pocket for a while, with their strong showing in the UEFA Nations League over a year ago giving Steve Clarke and his players an alternative qualification route. Until recently, though, it appeared Scotland would allow this opportunity slip through their fingers.
Indeed, Scotland under Clarke were directionless for a long time. Results were underwhelming and performances even more so. Everything changed with the playoff semi final win over Israel, though. This was another poor performance, but the penalty shootout victory appeared to give the dressing room some much-needed confidence.
Serbia v Scotland
- Thursday 19:45 GMT on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 13/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 9/2
From this, Scotland have carried momentum into their World Cup qualifiers, claiming impressive wins over Slovakia and Czech Republic in their next two fixtures. It wasn’t the result, though, that was most encouragement. It was the way Scotland’s players seemingly finally absorbed the ideas of their manager.
The back three system looks a good fit for the group Clarke has at his disposal, with Andy Considine proving himself on the left side and Scott McTominay as the one to carry the ball out from the back on the right. Ryan Jack has been deployed to great effect as the midfield anchor behind the likes of Callum McGregor and John McGinn.
Undoubtedly the biggest success story of the last two international breaks, though, has been the integration of Lyndon Dykes. The Australia-born striker was handed his first Scotland call-up for September’s international break and has very quickly proved himself as the ideal man to lead the line in Clarke’s system - he is 16/5 anytime goalscorer against Serbia.
Scotland could still use a runner around Dykes to make the most of his hold-up play and knock downs, and this is where a fit again Leigh Griffiths could come in, but the Queens Park Rangers forward is more than just a targetman to hit with long balls. He offers cutting edge, as he has shown with goals against Czech Republic and Slovakia, and appears to relish the pressure of being Scotland’s main man up top.
Clarke has made Scotland tough to beat. This quality should make Thursday’s playoff final in Belgrade a tight encounter, with the visitors to Serbia currently on an eight-game unbeaten streak stretching all the way back to the defeat to Russia in October 2019. Don’t expect many goals in this one - under 1.5 goals at 7/4 looks a solid bet.
Another penalty shootout might well be on the cards (penalty shootout win for either team is priced at 11/2). While Scotland’s recent form is strong, they have scored just twice in their last three games. They have, however, won their last two away matches (against Czech Republic and Cyprus). Serbia will present a tougher test in terms of their individual quality, but this is a team without a win at home in their last three outings. Their last home victory was a narrow 3-2 win over Luxembourg.
- Sky Bet: Scotland to qualify at 5/2
Ryan Fraser will be missed, with the Newcastle United midfielder showing signs of an understanding with Dykes in the wins over Slovakia and Czech Republic. In Fraser’s absence, Clarke must make sure Dykes isn’t left isolated, even if Scotland spend much of the game defending and holding form in their own half.
Scotland will need to ride their luck to get past Serbia, but they are at least in a position to earn some of their own luck. There is good reason to believe they can get the job done. Not since 1998 have Scotland been at a major tournament, but that’s because they weren’t ready to make the climb up to such a stage. Now, they appear ready.
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (10/11/20)
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