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Timo Werner: Why Chelsea forward should be getting Ilkay Gundogan levels of praise
Timo Werner's £48million price tag has often been the reference point to judge his performances since making the move to Chelsea.
Frank Lampard seemingly struggled to get the best out of him, and with Thomas Tuchel now in the Stamford Bridge dugout, Werner's input will be towards the top of the German's priority list.
The 2020/21 campaign has been portrayed as one of disaster for Werner but it is not the case - in fact it couldn't be further from the truth.
His goal involvement stands at 19 across all competitions this season which is significant. If we combine goals and assists in the Premier League, it also puts him among some top names.
Werner's combined 13-goal figure (five goals, eight assists) is higher than Riyad Mahrez (9), Sadio Mane (11) and Danny Ings (11) while it's level with Manchester City's midfield duo of Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan, a German international who has been grabbing the headlines in a far more positive way.
Yet Werner hasn't seen the same amount of praise. If we put a price tag on each of those players, the large majority would create a figure higher than the £48million Chelsea paid for the forward, and the same especially goes for the number on Gundogan.
"I was brought down to earth," Werner recently told German publication Kicker when discussing his start to life in England. He hasn't hit the heights we were used to at Leipzig, but his season has been far from the sorry picture being painted in some corners. But the appointment of Tuchel should mean that he can find that Leipzig form once again.
What has improved for Timo Werner under Thomas Tuchel?
The early signs under the new management in place at the club give hope to the short-term gains having a long-term effect. Under Lampard, Werner was averaging 0.26 assists per game. Since Tuchel came in, that average has shot up to 0.60 with three coming in five games.
His overall goal involvement rate has jumped up too. That average stands at 0.80 with Tuchel (one goal and three assists in five games). Lampard's Chelsea had Werner on 0.53 with four goals and five assists across the first half of the Premier League campaign.
It's already a good start - now there is the opportunity to become even better. Werner saw three or more total shots in 37% of his league games with Lampard in charge. From and including the 2-0 win over Burnley, the forward has had at least three shots in 60% of his league outings. The threat was present previously and it has only grown in recent weeks.
Atletico performance gives hope for Champions League goals
Despite Chelsea having an easy group in the Champions League, Werner only hit the three-shot threshold in one of his four starts (the 0-0 draw at home to Sevilla). In the Blues' win away at Atletico Madrid on Tuesday, Werner had three and his Infogol Expected Goals total was 0.78 at the end of the night - he should have had a goal in Bucharest.
In the group stages, Werner saw a total of 0.17 against Sevilla at home and, aside from a penalty away at Krasnodar, it was 0.08. His two goals in the home win over Rennes were from the spot and the away fixture saw 0.80. In four European games under Lampard, Werner's combined non-penalty xG was 1.05. A return of only 0.28 in the second leg against Atletico would see a better figure in just two contests against much tougher opposition with Tuchel in charge.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Infogol's model works out the percentage of each shot to create a reflection of the chances in each game
That does, of course, bring into question his finishing and the fact that two games with good chances failed to bring a return on the scoresheet but it also creates promise that Werner's rate will improve in the future with significantly better opportunities coming his way on a more regular basis.
On the surface, Werner's overall xG and xA rate under Tuchel has decreased slightly compared with the Lampard era. In the Premier League and Champions League, he's gone from 0.51 xG per 95 minutes to 0.47. The assists figure has gone from 0.15 to 0.09. However, the headline figures don't tell the full story.
The assists number doesn't cover penalties won. From those five assists before the managerial switch, only one was from being fouled for a spot kick. In the three since, two have been for a penalty. Those numbers suggest that his new role sitting on the left side of an attacking midfield duo are causing more problems for opposition defences.
Werner's three Champions League goals also came from penalties whereas he hasn't had that responsibility with Tuchel in charge, that has gone back to Jorginho. With penalty kicks carrying an xG rate of around 0.78, those three efforts significantly improved his numbers under Lampard.
The forward's final two seasons at Leipzig brought 53 goals in all competitions. His 28 in the Bundesliga during 2019/20 was bettered only by the prolific Robert Lewandowski and Werner was 11 clear of the next closest challenger (Dortmund's Jadon Sancho).
That quality doesn't disappear overnight. Having the time to fully settle in, combined with a coach who understands his strengths, should lead to a strong end to the season. Werner is a name to consider in the markets for the remainder of the season, and the value will remain when we talk outrights for the 2021/22 campaign.
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