Timing is everything.
Big Sam isn’t caught up in scandal a game into his reign as England manager and Gareth Southgate probably never takes over.
Southgate doesn’t resign with less than a month until the start of the new season - meaning the vast majority of both the best and the best English managers are committed - and fewer than seven weeks before England’s next competitive match and Lee Carsley probably never gets his own Southgate-type audition.
Harry Kane is fit against Greece and we're probably never even having this conversation.
But we should be.
Convenient as it is to package it all up as a deliberate, progressive move based on footballing ideology, circumstance, not credentials, led to a situation where Lee Carsley was seemingly on the verge of becoming England's next permanent manager.
He should be applauded for leading the England Under-21s to victory in their own European Championship last summer via a brand of possession-based, expansive football.
But had they lost in the semi-finals playing Southgateball, he would still have been placed in charge for this Nations League campaign.
“I have to try something because we’ve got to put ourselves in a position where we can win," said Carsley in an attempt to justify selecting a bizarre starting XI against Greece.
"To think that we can just do the same again and expect something different is naive. I’m really wary of the fact that the last time we won something was 1966 so we have to have that ability to try something different."
Our desperation to quench that long thirst for major-tournament success can lead to all kinds of bad takes, even from the most understated of men.
Carsley’s vacuous words harking back to the good old days of Sir Alf are at best misplaced and at worst disrespectful to his classy, statesman-like predecessor.
Whatever anyone would have you believe, the Southgate era was an unparalleled success.
To deliver such consistency over an eight-year period was unprecedented for an England manager. While it’s true the ultimate goal for a top-tier nation will always be to win a trophy, what had been distinctly lacking in the decade previous was any kind of hope. The ability for fans to dream.
In all four Southgate tournaments there was plenty of that.
Since defeat by Spain in Berlin, and in fairness during the entirety of Euro 2024, there was a creeping narrative about England needing to be far more attacking, about Southgate "holding the team back", when in reality he had driven them forwards, rescued us from the abyss, before ultimately being edged by fine margins.
And like all good things, it simply came to an end.
There is little doubt Carsley's comments are an unintentional slight, but his actions have reflected a total disregard for the hard work put in by the previous regime. Back-to-back Euros finalists, World Cup semi and quarter-finalists, England are not in need of a total overhaul that involves two inverted full-backs, a false nine, every attacking midfielder possible and the dropping of their only outstanding defender from Euro 2024.
Tactical detail, not footballing philosophy, cost England against Croatia, Italy, France and Spain.
Comparisons should not be drawn with the latter, who have consistently won in this era by playing their natural way. One that suits them. That's knitted into the fabric of their national identity.
Organised defence, balanced attacking play, set-pieces, with some blood and thunder thrown in - this is England. This is what got us so close. We just need to do it better.
International managers cannot make players into something they are not. It is about a coach maximising what is at their disposal.
Next permanent England manager (odds via Betfair)
- Thomas Tuchel - 8/15
- Lee Carsley - 4/1
- Pep Guardiola - 6/1
- Graham Potter - 15/2
- Eddie Howe - 9/1
- 25/1 bar
Odds correct at 12:00 (14/10/24)
Back in June it appeared virtually certain that having left Bayern, Thomas Tuchel would be appointed by Manchester United. He wasn't. Jurgen Klopp had just started his break having stepped down as Liverpool boss. He is now in a consultancy role for Red Bull. Pep Guardiola was dropping strong hints this season would be his last at Manchester City. Long-time ally Txiki Begiristain has since confirmed he'll leave as director of football in June.
“This job deserves a world-class coach that has won trophies and been there and done it," said Carsley after victory in Finland.
“I’ve not really thought that much about it. I keep saying the same thing – my remit was to do six games and I’m really happy with that.”
It's a stretch to say England's interim boss is ruling himself out, but his assessment is fair and his demeanour is telling. After the Three Lions' next two matches, his time should be up.
Because timing really is everything.
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