World Cup 2018: Who will make England's squad?

23:22 · WED March 22, 2017

England’s World Cup squad will look very similar to their Euro 2016 one but Wayne Rooney has only a 50-50 chance of being in it, according to the odds.

Ahead of the 1-0 defeat away to Germany in Wednesday night's international friendly – a game which was the first of Gareth Southgate’s reign since being handed the manager’s job on a permanent basis - Sky Bet opened a book on who will make it on the plane to Russia in just under 15 months’ time.

The key conclusions of the prices are:

• England’s captain of three years, Wayne Rooney, has only a 50-50 chance of making the trip.

• Rooney, who has made 119 appearances for this country, is as likely to travel to Russia as the uncapped Michail Antonio (both are even money).

• England’s projected 2018 squad features only three changes to the one Roy Hodgson took to Euro 2016.

• Joe Hart, at 1/16, is the player most likely to make the final 23-man squad.

• Gary Cahill is the frontrunner to captain England in their first game of the competition.

Here are the men Sky Bet are, according to their odds, predicting will be present at Russia 2018:

Joe Hart (1/16)
Tom Heaton (1/4)
Fraser Forster (1/3)

Kyle Walker (1/10)
Nathaniel Clyne (1/8)
Danny Rose (1/10)
Ryan Bertrand (1/3)
John Stones (1/10)
Chris Smalling (1/8)
Gary Cahill (1/8)

Eric Dier (1/10)
Jordan Henderson (1/4)
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (8/11)
Adam Lallana (1/10)
Dele Alli (1/10)
Raheem Sterling (1/10)
Ross Barkley (1/3)
Jesse Lingard (evens)
Michail Antonio (evens)

Wayne Rooney (evens)
Harry Kane (1/10)
Marcus Rashford (1/5)
Jamie Vardy (1/3)

Click here for Sky Bet's full England World Cup 2018 squad market

Having passed his four-game audition with flying colours, Southgate has already begun to shape the squad in the way he wants.

As shown above, Sky Bet’s traders have 23 players at even money or shorter to be named in the new boss' final squad and despite England’s obvious shortcomings at Euro 2016, where they suffered the embarrassment of a last-16 defeat to Iceland, there are only three differences between their predicted squad and the one selected by Hodgson last summer.

Daniel Sturridge, Jack Wilshere and the now-retired James Milner are replaced by Michail Antonio, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Jesse Lingard.

Comparing the bookmaker’s squad with the one Southgate named for the Germany game (one which admittedly featured 26 names), throws up seven players currently being offered at odds-against to make it to Russia 2018.

They are Luke Shaw (11/8), Phil Jones (6/4), Michael Keane (7/4), James Ward-Prowse (2/1), Nathan Redmond (3/1), Jake Livermore (4/1) and Jermain Defoe (5/1).

Of course, England do still need to qualify for the finals but are currently on course to do so (and are offered at just 1/66 to make it). After four games in Group F they are two points clear of Slovenia, a lead they will look to stretch on Sunday when they host Lithuania at Wembley. If they fail to qualify, all bets will be declared void.

The Sky Bet squad throws up some interesting debates, certainly when it comes to punters looking for a bit of long-range value. Here’s our look at some of those:

Wayne Rooney – The England captain from 2014 is no longer assured of a place in the squad, let along the team, according to the prices which make him a 50-50 chance to play in his fourth World Cup next year. Southgate cited a lack of game time at Manchester United as a reason for leaving him out of the squad for this week's matches and offered no guarantees that he would return. Even money is a price that seems likely to be popular in some quarters about a man who has scored 53 goals in 119 games for his country but it may be he needs a summer transfer if he is play at the World Cup again.

In for keeps? – England have to take three keepers to Russia but do Tom Heaton and Fraser Forster really deserve to be considerably odds-on? The value here looks to lie with Jordan Pickford, the Sunderland stopper who has been one of the shining lights at the Stadium of Light this season. He has long been touted for a move and that will seem even more likely should the Black Cats drop into the Championship. At 13/8, there’s plenty of potential for him to shorten, particularly if he’s playing at a club in the Champions League (Liverpool look a perfect fit) next season.

Defensive set-up – Do you take four full-backs to a tournament, as Roy Hodgson did last summer, or are numbers at centre-back more important with a utility man left to cover the wider defensive positions? Answer this question correctly and there’s scope to profit. Southgate has named four full-backs and five centre-halves in his current squad with one of the latter being Phil Jones, who can also play at right-back. He’s an interesting price of 6/4 to make the final cut. However, Jones’ versatility could alternatively prove his undoing. The ability of Eric Dier to come out of midfield and drop back means Southgate may opt against simply picking out-and-out defenders to cover those back-four positions.

Crock or not? – There are plenty of players on Sky Bet’s early list who would surely be shorter prices if only they had a more reliable fitness record. Perhaps the most obvious one is Daniel Sturridge, out at 2/1 at present. He looks likely to leave Anfield this summer and if he can play 25-30 games at a Premier League club next season, he’ll likely score goals and claim a place in Southgate’s squad. Of course, that’s a big if for a player with his injury record. A similar case can be made for Andy Carroll (3/1), a player who, as the cliché goes, offers ‘something different’. However, he’s been playing fairly regularly of late and if he couldn’t make this Southgate squad – one which features only three strikers – you wonder whether he’s really in the new manager’s thoughts at all.

Teacher’s pets – Most managers have players they pick time after time, even when others can’t understand why. It remains to be seen whether Southgate follows suit but what is striking about his most recent squad is that he has put plenty of faith in some players he chose regularly during his time as under-21 boss. Michail Antonio is one but perhaps more significantly, in betting terms at least, so are Nathan Redmond and James Ward-Prowse - 3/1 and 2/1 respectively to make the trip to Russia.

Outside chance – Fifteen months before Euro 2016, you probably had never heard the name Marcus Rashford; ditto Theo Walcott and the 2006 World Cup. Both made the England squad though and just maybe there’s a player who will make the final 23 who is not one of the 55 players currently priced up by Sky Bet. However, of those who are there, the 4/1 about Everton’s Tom Davies looks perhaps the best shout. The 18-year-old has taken to Premier League life like a duck to water and has already captained his country at various youth levels so will very much be on Southgate’s radar.

Captain’s duty – Sky Bet are also betting on who will captain England in their first match of the 2018 World Cup. Gary Cahill has been chalked up as the 6/4 favourite despite recent speculation that Southgate could hand the armband to Harry Kane, once the Spurs striker is fit again. Kane is a 5/2 chance. Wayne Rooney, Jordan Henderson and Joe Hart are all 7/1 shots, just ahead of Eric Dier at 8/1.

For reference, the squad Southgate selected for the games with Germany and Lithuania was as follows (prices to make the World Cup squad are shown in brackets):

Joe Hart (1/16)
Tom Heaton (1/4)
Fraser Forster (1/3)

Kyle Walker (1/10)
Nathaniel Clyne (1/8)
Ryan Bertrand (1/3)
Luke Shaw (11/8)
Gary Cahill (1/8)
Chris Smalling (1/8)
John Stones (1/10)
Phil Jones - withdrew injured (6/4)
Michael Keane (7/4)

Eric Dier (1/10)
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (1/4)
Adam Lallana (1/10)
Dele Alli (1/10)
Raheem Sterling (1/10)
Ross Barkley (1/3)
Jesse Lingard (evens)
Michail Antonio - withdrew injured (evens)
Nathan Redmond (3/1)
James Ward-Prowse (2/1)
Jake Livermore (4/1)