Alan Shearer finished top scorer at Euro 96, while Harry Kane picked up the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup. But Joe Rindl believes the xG stats tell a different story.
Harry Kane and Alan Shearer get compared a lot.
And why shouldn’t they be? When you look, the similarities seem endless. Both are England forwards, both have spent season after season scoring for fun and yet both have won just one trophy - although Shearer’s Premier League triumph with Blackburn trumps Kane and Spurs’ Audi Cup.
Kane, 27, is at a career crossroads. And, remarkably, it’s a similar position to the one Shearer was in 25 years ago.
In the summer of 1996, while the European Championships were taking place in England, Blackburn’s Shearer had offers from Real Madrid, Manchester United and the club he’d ultimately move to, Newcastle United.
Going back over Shearer’s incredible numbers during that tournament, it appears England fans should get behind any Kane transfer saga. Want-away strikers at the Euros seem to enter the form of their life.
Shearer crucial at Euro 96
In his last major tournament, the 2018 World Cup, Kane may have galloped to the Golden Boot, but a quick look at the expected goals data shows there’s still more the Tottenham talisman can do before he hits Shearer’s dizzying heights.
The Premier League Hall-of-Famer netted five times for England in Euro 96 as they made it all the way to the semi-finals, losing to Germany in an(other) agonising penalty shoot-out.
But Shearer’s true value is revealed once you dig into Infogol’s xG. For the novices among us, every shot towards the target has an xG figure. An open goal from a yard out may have an xG of 0.9, i.e. for every 100 attempts in this exact scenario, 90 will go in.
Of the five goals Shearer scored on his way to the Golden Boot, his chances added up to just 3.45 xG. England’s number nine was making tough openings look easy.
Where would Kane be without penalties?
Kane, on the other hand, left Russia as top scorer, netting six times en route to a deflating extra-time semi-final knockout by Croatia.
However, breaking it down, three of his goals were from the penalty spot, five of them came in the three group games, and one of those was a fortunate deflection off his heel from 20 yards out.
Now, we’d never encourage you to dismiss the art of scoring penalties - we, as England fans, should know just how difficult that can be - but Kane was on the end of just a 1.53 non-penalty xG total.
Take out the aforementioned deflection - rated at a low 0.06 xG due to the freak nature of the goal - and his two "proper" non-penalty goals came from a 1.47 xG total, meaning they were chances you would pretty much expect him to take.
His shots accounted for only 14% of England’s non-pen xG – Jesse Lingard, by comparison, contributed 20% and Shearer had a whopping 38% two decades before.
So is Kane overrated then? An extremely fortunate forward who shouldn't be anywhere near the starting XI?
No, not at all. What we're saying is Kane’s penalties disguised his lean service.
People forget Dele Alli played through injury for much of the tournament and winger-turned-full-back Ashley Young stood in for spells in the middle of the park during the knockouts.
This summer, with Mason Mount, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish behind him the opportunities for Kane will likely double.
If he can take them, well then maybe we really will have Shearer 2.0. Now, back to the rumour mill…
