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West Ham: What's behind the Hammers turnaround in results?

By Ninad Barbadikar

18:58 · SAT December 23, 2023

Written and published prior to Saturday's 2-0 victory over Manchester United, where Paqueta assisted Bowen's opener, before Kudus scored West Ham's second

West Ham's win over Wolves came courtesy of three Lucas Paqueta assists, which supplied Mohammed Kudus with a brace and Jarrod Bowen with the third goal.

That pretty much summed up how David Moyes has got West Ham firing.

His potent attacking trio are forming the backbone of a new team that has not only steadied but lifted the mood around the London Stadium.

But it hasn't happened overnight, and certainly not by accident.

A new role for Paqueta

On the opening day against Bournemouth, Michail Antonio started up front and Paqueta was in a double pivot alongside Tomas Soucek.

That had been the Brazilian's default role since the start of last season despite not being the best use of his skillset.

The arrival of Edson Alvarez and James Ward-Prowse has allowed for a re-configuration of midfield following Declan Rice's departure, with Alvarez now a useful base and stable screen in front of the defence.

West Ham's attack has changed significantly since opening day.

Ward-Prowse's industrious nature and productivity from set-pieces has brought its own benefits too.

The Hammers currently rank third for expected goals for (xGF) from set-pieces (7.49) according to Opta, showing just how effective the England midfielder has been.

Paqueta has been pushed further forward in a hybrid winger role, able to contribute more meaningfully in a creative sense.

His role in a new-look front three has also made West Ham one of the quickest teams in the league, adding to their strength as a counter-attacking unit.

From his role on the left, Paqueta still drops deep to receive and spray passes into wide areas while attempting creative passes for off-ball runners like Bowen and Kudus.

The Brazilian ranks 10th for progressive passes in the Premier League this season with 105 - West Ham are getting so much more from him.

He also leads the squad for shot-creating actions from live ball passes (36) this season.

A change in role has finally brought to life his best qualities.

Kudus and Bowen thriving

With Paqueta assuming greater creative responsibility, Bowen and Kudus have thrived.

The two rank first and second in the squad for progressive receptions with 92 for Bowen and 76 for Kudus. The former Ajax forward has taken his time in adjusting to life in the Premier League but is definitely looking the part now.

In and out of the side in the early parts of the season, Kudus is now a regular on the right flank, made possible by Bowen's own change in position to become a centre-forward.

Bowen already has 10 league goals this season from an xG tally of 6.5. Averaging 2.69 shots per90, Bowen is shooting more than ever.

Understandably there has been a slight drop-off in his expected assists (xA) figures from 0.20 last season to 0.14 this season.

Fielding him further up front has made West Ham's frontline a lot more fluid and difficult to defend against in transition, while also bringing the best out of his team-mates, Kudus in particular.

He has inherited the Bowen role superbly, attempting more take-ons (59) than any other West Ham player across 14 appearances, which includes eight starts. Much like Bowen used to, Kudus is hurting defences by cutting into central areas and getting shots away.

The Ghana international has five goals to his name already that feels like it will only grow in the second half of the campaign

Underlying data not the best...

With Moyes' approach in and out of possession not focussed on dominating the opposition in attack, the underlying data doesn't show a huge difference this season as compared to last.

Looking at their xG averages, West Ham last season averaged 1.15 xG per game and this season, that figure has only slightly gone up to 1.39.

It's true that Moyes-ball only takes you so far, but being able to integrate quality players like Paqueta and Kudus into the attack alongside Bowen means that even if they aren't creating chances in high volume, the Hammers will always be a threat against most teams.

Being able to integrate Kudus so quickly and find new roles to get more from Paqueta and Bowen, so long as they keep this new vibrant front three fit then West Ham are well-equipped to maintain their eighth-place in the table push for a deep run in Europe again.

With Kudus missing for the Africa Cup of Nations next month, and obvious replacement Said Benrahma also away with Algeria, that could be the time the data catches up with them.

Until then though, West Ham have a lot to smile about.

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