Football betting tips: West Ham v Tottenham
2pts West Ham draw no bet at 10/11 (Betfred)
1pt Aaron Creswell assist at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
West Ham v Tottenham
- Sunday, 12:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match Odds: Home 8/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 17/10
West Ham are in unfamiliar territory heading into this game, occupying fifth spot in the Premier League, sitting outside of the top four by goal difference only.
David Moyes deserves immense credit for the turnaround, with the Hammers in relegation trouble last season and looking like a completely different team this term.
Their lofty position is backed up by the underlying numbers too, sitting in the top seven of Infogol’s expected goals (xG) table based on expected points (xP). The same can’t be said for their opponents in this game, Tottenham (11th).
The Hammers have lost just one of their last 10 league games (v Liverpool), winning six, and those results are reflected in their performances, which means that, if they continue to perform in the same manner, West Ham will stick around in the top six.
Their season averages of 1.61 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.28 expected goals against (xGA) are impressive, and are also better than those put up by Tottenham (1.49, 1.44).
You are getting the picture then, that the data makes the Hammers the better of the two teams heading into this clash, and it is hard to disagree.
As Steven Railston discussed in his article this week, Jose Mourinho teams tend to experience a period of xG overperformance before regression kicks in, and that is what we are starting to see from Spurs.
They have won just three of 12 in the league, with two of those wins coming against the bottom two, and that run leaves them ninth heading into this game.
Results over that time have been fully deserved, with their xG process suggesting they have been performing like a bottom half team (1.20 xGF, 1.53 xGA per game) – and the eye test backs that assumption up.
Harry Kane is back and should be well rested after opting not to play in the Europa League, which is a boost, but even with him in the side of late they have underwhelmed in attack.
They could struggle to break down a stubborn West Ham unit in this game, and the Infogol model actually makes West Ham 13/10 favourites to win here, but I am going to play it on the safe side.
West Ham are the team I think are most likely to emerge with the three points in this clash, but I will back them in the draw no bet market for added security, especially given their results against the so called 'big six'.
You can back WEST HAM DRAW NO BET at 10/11 with Betfred.
Another interesting angle I like the look of is in the assist market.
Aaron Cresswell has already got six assists to his name this season, and the majority of those have come from corners and set-pieces, of which he takes the bulk of.
West Ham have scored 13 times from such situations, and 25% of their xGF total this term has come from corners and set-pieces, so it is a clear strength of the Hammers.
On the flip side, 25% of the xGA Tottenham have conceded this season has come from corners and set-pieces, so I see West Ham causing some real troubles from dead ball situations, in which case an AARON CRESSWELL ASSIST looks too big at 7/2 with Sky Bet. He is as short as 12/5 elsewhere.
Score Prediction: West Ham 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds 8/1)
West Ham v Tottenham best bets
- West Ham draw no bet at 10/11 (Betfred)
- Aaron Cresswell assist at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1620 GMT (19/02/21)
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