Relegation-threatened West Ham host top-four-chasing Newcastle in front of the Sky cameras on Wednesday, and Jake Osgathorpe provides the best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 3/4 (BetUK)
1pt Thilo Kehrer to be carded at 9/2 (bet365, BetVictor)
We have a pretty big game at the London Stadium on Wednesday night, with the outcome affecting both the top and the bottom of the Premier League table.
Unfortunately, I don't think it will be a cracker, so I'm going to waste no time in revealing the main selection of the preview - UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
West Ham have reverted back to a more compact set-up of late given their requirement for results, and that has led to a dearth of chances.
Across their last nine league matches, the Unders have copped on seven occasions, and it has landed in four of their five home game unbeaten run thanks to a stellar defensive process in that time (0.90 xGA per game).
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
West Ham 5/2 | Draw 23/10 | Newcastle 11/10
They have been stingy, and the same can be said for Wednesday's visitors, with Newcastle allowing just 0.89 xGA per away game since the restart - and that's despite visiting both of the current top two, Arsenal and Manchester City.
Four of those six contests went under the 2.5 line, while nine of their 12 overall since the World Cup break have seen fewer than three goals.
It is worth mentioning also that Eddie Howe's side aren't anywhere near as potent in attack on the road as they are at St. James' Park, averaging 2.39 xGF per game when at home and 1.59 when travelling.
The underlying data of both sides supports a low-scoring contest, and the recent form does too, so I'm happy to take the 3/4 price about the unders here.
A second bet at a bigger price that caught the eye was THILO KEHRER TO BE CARDED, which can be backed at 9/2.
The West Ham full-back has been cautioned four times in 20 league appearances this season, but interestingly has operated at right-back as opposed to right-centre-back of late.
David Moyes has switched systems since the 2-0 defeat to Tottenham, and Kehrer has started at right-back ever since Ben Johnson's nightmare outing in that position at Brighton.
This means he will be up against one of the league's trickiest wingers on Wednesday night, Allan Saint-Maximin.
No player in the Premier League attempts more dribbles per 95 minutes than the Frenchman's 7.5, and no player who has played more than 1000 minutes of football completes more dribbles per 95.
Kehrer will have his work cut out then, and given we have a solid refereeing appointment in the shape of Craig Pawson, his chances of collecting a card increase further.
Pawson has overseen 30 games across all competitions this season and has brandished 131 yellows and two reds - that's an average of 4.4 cards per game.
So chancing a card for the German full-back appeals in a likely low-scoring, hard-fought contest.
West Ham v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 3/4 (BetUK)
- 1pt Thilo Kehrer to be carded at 9/2 (bet365, BetVictor)
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1625 BST (04/04/23)
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