Liam Kelly previews Leicester's trip to West Ham, a vital game in the fight for European places.
Premier League betting tips: West Ham v Leicester
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (General)
You would have been quoted massive odds for these two teams to occupy a Champions League qualification place with less than ten games remaining, but here we are, covering a colossal game in the race for the top four.
Leicester have powered through injury struggles to stay in third place recently, desperate to avoid another late season collapse, while seemingly perennial underachievers West Ham have been nothing short of excellent in 2020/21.
David Moyes' side enter the weekend holding fourth place by a single point, which is no fluke given the underlying numbers West Ham are producing.
The Hammers have averaged 1.61 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.33 expected goals against (xGA) per game this season, building a solid gap between their 10-match rolling trendlines throughout the season before faltering at the back in the last two games.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Moyes will surely be unhappy with their recent defensive displays, slacking off after taking commanding 3-0 leads in their last two matches.
Although West Ham escaped with four points from those fixtures, it is a warning sign that must be read.
As a result, Moyes may well pay attention to the devil on his shoulder and revert to past pragmatic ways, especially without the likes of Declan Rice and Michail Antonio to call upon.
That makes the 10/11 available on UNDER 2.5 GOALS an intriguing proposition given the stakes involved for both sides. Vital matches such as this are often short on attacking vigour.
Leicester's away form has powered their impressive campaign, losing only one game on the road en route to accumulating a points total that is only bettered by champions-elect Manchester City.
Defensive solidity has been the anchor to that form, too, allowing 13 goals in the 15 matches away from the King Power Stadium, further strengthening the argument for a low-scoring affair.
Kelechi Iheanacho's outstanding contributions in recent weeks has papered over some creative issues, too.
If we excuse the big 5-0 win over a detached Sheffield United side, Leicester have recorded a meagre average of 0.88 xGF per game in their last five Premier League fixtures.
Unfortunately for the neutral, I just can't see West Ham's sudden tendency to be involved in thrillers continue in this match-up.
West Ham v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (General)
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 0900 BST (09/04/21)
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