League One Doncaster Rovers travel to three-time winners West Ham United in the FA Cup on Saturday. Joe Rindl has a preview and best bets.
The stats point to an easy home win, Doncaster have won just one of their last 16 FA Cup games against top-flight opponents, beating QPR 1-0 in the third round in 1985.
Although, with the victor in this tie set to visit the winners of Manchester United v Liverpool, I imagine motivation may be fairly low in the West Ham dressing room.
The Hammers have alternated between winning (four) and losing (three) their last seven FA Cup ties against lower league opposition. And they stuttered to a 1-0 win against non-league Stockport County in the last round.
But David Moyes picked out a strong XI on that day, and West Ham are in fine form, winning their last four on the bounce. Even a weakened side should be enough to edge out third-tier Rovers especially at home.
With the prospect of a trip to Anfield or Old Trafford only a game away, I expect Doncaster to sit back, keep things tight, and try to nick a winner on the break. Darren Moore’s side have been excellent at the back this campaign with just four teams in League One boasting a better defensive record.
Rovers have conceded just two goals in their last four games in all competitions, while both sides advanced to this stage of the competition thanks to 1-0 wins. Whoever comes out on top, I’m not expecting a thriller in this tie. Total goals being under 2.5 at evens (general) seems a very safe choice.
If this fixture was being played a month earlier I’d fully expect Doncaster to win 1-0 at 25/1 to pull through. But the Hammers’ recent upturn in form - they’re unbeaten in their last six in all competitions - makes a home victory seem the most logical outcome.
Michail Antonio is coming off the back of two goals in his last two games and started upfront at Stockport in the third round. He’s favourite to be first goalscorer at 7/2, although I feel he may be rested with Andriy Yarmolenko possibly playing through the middle.
After the sale of Sebastien Haller to Ajax, West Ham are a little light for number nines. Ukraine international Yarmolenko, although usually a winger, has played in that role in the past. Him scoring first at 5/1 with Sky Bet feels like a strong shout.
The forward has only netted twice for the London club this season, although both goals were against second-tier Hull in the EFL Cup. Moyes may feel a start as the main-man against a League One side may be the ideal opportunity for the 31-year-old to rediscover his goalscoring touch.
Score Prediction: West Ham 2-0 Doncaster (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (21/01/21)
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