Fresh from his 6/4 and 6/1 winners last week, our tipster Joe Rindl has two best bets for Monday night's Black Country derby.
Football betting tips: West Brom v Wolves
1pt A penalty to be awarded in the match at 2/1 (General)
1pt Matheus Pereira to score anytime at 11/4 (General)
Should I even bother saying West Brom’s match against bitter rivals Wolves is a must-win game?
Since the turn of the year every fixture has been a must-win for Allardyce’s side. The problem is, they hardly ever win those must-win games.
Last time out was no exception. The Baggies took the lead against Aston Villa only for the Villains to steal a draw after a defensive error from Kyle Bartley.
While big results over Chelsea and Southampton gave West Brom hope, a pitiful loss to Leicester and self-destruction at Villa reminded us of their frailties.
Let’s be frank, West Brom are already down. Sure they can mathematically pull off a miracle, but the Baggies are nine points from safety with five games to go.
Even if they win three times they’re having to hope that Brighton don’t pick up another point. I just don’t see it. I’m sorry Baggies fans, but there just aren’t enough games left to play.
Having said all of the above, this must-win match is still, well, winnable.
Wolves’ form is even worse than their rivals’, with a horror 4-0 loss to strugglers Burnley last time out a stark reminder of their squad's lack of depth without the injured Jonny, Pedro Neto, Fernando Marcal and Raul Jimenez.
Wolves have lost four of their last seven and have won just two of their previous eight. Those wins were narrow 1-0 victories over Fulham and Sheffield United, two teams languishing in the relegation zone.
Wolves have been woeful this term and against Burnley they barely threatened. The motivation of a Black Country derby may reinvigorate their form, but I think it’s so telling that West Brom, a team who have won just five times this season, have virtually the same outright odds as their opponents.
I’d stick away from the outrights though given the unpredictable nature of a team desperate for points facing one who appears indifferent.
Instead, I think there’s real value on a penalty punt in this scrappy local derby, with A PENALTY TO BE AWARDED IN THE MATCH a tasty 2/1.
No team has conceded more spot-kicks in the Premier League this season than West Brom’s 10, although Wolves also have their fair share with seven against, the joint-third most.
Monday’s referee Michael Oliver is also in a bit of a purple patch when it comes to awarding spot-kicks. He’s given four in his last five matches and has a ridiculous pens per game ratio of 0.68 - the highest in the Premier League.
The Baggies meanwhile have won pens in two of their last three games and with everyone in football as unsure as ever as to what actually is handball, I think a soft game-changing decision is likely to occur at the Hawthorns.
MATHEUS PEREIRA scored two penalties against Wolves in the reverse fixture and will be on hand to take one if needed.
But the Brazillian is so much more than just West Brom’s set-piece taker. The 24-year-old has scored a third of West Brom’s league goals this season and is in fine form having netted four in his past four.
The bookies have made a real oversight pricing him 11/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME. I’m certain he’ll do exactly that whether it’s from 12 yards out or not.
West Brom v Wolves best bets and score prediction
- 1pt A penalty to be awarded in the match at 2/1 (General)
- 1pt Matheus Pereria to score anytime at 11/4 (General)
Score prediction: West Brom 2-2 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 2215 BST (30/04/21)
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