Liam Kelly looks at Sunday's opening Premier League match, providing a best bet for a vital game between West Brom and Newcastle.
Football betting tips: West Brom v Newcastle
1pt Mbaye Diagne anytime goalscorer at 21/10 (General)
There's no understating the importance of this massive game for two teams deep in a relegation battle.
West Bromwich Albion enter the match-up eight points behind opponents Newcastle, quickly running out of time to save themselves from the drop after a 1-0 home defeat by Everton on Thursday night.
The Baggies missed opportunities to stretch their unbeaten run to four games there, with Mbaye Diagne squandering West Brom's biggest chance early on.
Earlier in the season, West Brom were on course to be one of the worst attacking teams in recent Premier League history based on expected goals, but Sam Allardyce's appointment has brought on some improvement in that area.
Having averaged 0.73 xGF per game under Slaven Bilić, that has bumped up to 1.02 xGF per game since Allardyce's arrival, benefitting Diagne in particular.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
- Expected Goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected Goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected Goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Unfortunately for West Brom, Diagne has only scored once from chances equating to a total of 4.0 xG since his January transfer.
However, if Diagne continues to get into scoring positions, the goals will come. With West Brom in desperate need of goals and a win, I think he bags one here, making the 21/10 on offer generally for DIAGNE ANYTIME GOALSCORER a solid proposition.
Not much can or should be said about Newcastle.
Steve Bruce's men have won just two of their past 15 top-flight matches, dropping to the brink of Premier League safety, and justifiably so based on Infogol's expected goals table.
Injury issues continue to blight the Magpies, too, as Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almirón join Callum Wilson on the sidelines, neutralising almost all of Newcastle's attacking threat.
West Brom are catching their opponents at the perfect time and must take full advantage of Newcastle's problems to have a chance of survival.
West Brom v Newcastle score prediction and best bets
- Mbaye Diagne anytime goalscorer at 21/10 (General)
Score prediction: West Brom 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1530 GMT on 05/03/21
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