Manchester City can go top of the Premier League table with victory over West Brom. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pts Joao Cancelo to score first at 33/1
1pt Joao Cancelo to score anytime at 11/1
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West Brom v Manchester City
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 16/1 | Draw 13/2 | Away 1/7
One genius comes up against another as Pep Guardiola takes his Manchester City side to Sam Allardyce's West Brom. The Baggies were the last team to prevent City securing victory with a 1-1 draw in the last game of the Slaven Bilic era.
"Sam Allardyce is a genius to take these teams when everyone believes it’s over and get results," Guardiola said in his pre-match press conference. "If it happens once, twice or three times, OK you can say it’s lucky, but that is not the case because he’s done it I don’t know how many times."
The City boss actually has a point when you hear his explanation but they can hold confidence that they can continue the Baggies' miserable run at home. The last four at the Hawthorns have all seen the opposition scoring three or more, with Arsenal hitting four and Crystal Palace and Leeds getting five.
Allardyce's only win at the club came in the 3-2 success away at Wolves, a big result for the supporters, but they failed to follow it up with a 2-1 loss at West Ham. That home form is a huge concern though, they have conceded 12 and posted none in reply under current management.
We should expect a comfortable City win, even with the heroic performance to get a point when the sides last met. City look back to their best and they are now rightly the favourites for the title. This is simply a game they have to win but it also presents the opportunity to boost the goal difference further.
Even without Kevin De Bruyne, who will be a big miss, City at least have a big enough squad filled with quality throughout which can help them get through without their star player. They've done it without Sergio Aguero already; there are others ready to play the part as best as they can.
One player who has been demonstrating an ability to attack is Joao Cancelo. The City full-back is yet to score this season but he should have had a couple based on performances which have seen him playing like an attacking midfielder at times.
Comfortable at either left or right-back, and even stepping into a central midfield role occasionally, Cancelo has quietly gone about his business as one of City's most underrated players. His last two Premier League starts have brought five shots, two of which were on target and one hitting the woodwork.
His heatmap for the Villa game is just remarkable. Starting as a left-back, Cancelo spent a lot of time operating as almost a right-sided attacking midfielder. He seemed to spend more time nearer Villa's box than his own, and against this West Brom defence, a repeat performance will surely bring his first goal of the campaign.
I can't help but draw comparisons between how this game could go and the Leeds showing at the Hawthorns in December. West Brom looked so vulnerable to attacking full-backs and that should play into the hands of Cancelo and whoever partners him. A defensive player should be in the goals or assist column for City at the end of the night.
The 33/1 on the first goal and the 11/1 for anytime are both worth a play, with less staked on the bigger-priced selection. If Cancelo isn't involved then perhaps the 7/4 on City grabbing two in the first-half makes greater appeal than the short odds in the outright market. However, if he survives 'Pep roulette', Cancelo is well worth backing in the goalscorer markets.
Score prediction: West Brom 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
West Brom v Manchester City best bets
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (25/01/21)
Opta facts
- West Bromwich Albion are winless in their last 18 Premier League matches against Manchester City (D2 L16) since a 2-1 win in December 2008 under Tony Mowbray.
- Manchester City have won their last six away Premier League games against West Brom, their longest ever away top-flight winning streak against an opponent.
- West Brom have only had a longer top-flight winless run versus Liverpool (19 games between 1981 and 2010) than their current 18-game winless streak against Man City.
- In their 18 winless games since last beating Man City in December 2008, West Brom have led for a combined total of just 26 minutes and 3 seconds, taking the lead in October 2012 (ahead 12m 56s) and April 2016 (13m 7s) before going on to lose both games.
- Since losing 2-5 against Leicester in their second game of the season, Manchester City have conceded just seven goals in 16 Premier League games, keeping 10 clean sheets in the process.
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