The late kick-off on Sky Sports comes from the Hawthorns as West Brom welcome Leeds. Tom Carnduff has best bets at 9/1 and 10/1.
Recommended bets
1pt Adam Forshaw to score anytime at 10/1
1pt Jay Rodriguez to be shown a card at 9/1
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West Brom v Leeds (The Hawthorns, 1730 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)
Shock horror, Leeds United are on TV once again.
This weekend sees them travel to the West Midlands to take on a West Brom side who have hit a rough patch following a promising start.
Darren Moore's men have failed to win in their last four outings with three of those ending in defeat. That has seen them drop down to seventh in the table.
Leeds still boast the best away record in the division and wrapped up all three points in a 2-1 victory over Wigan last weekend. Despite going behind, Leeds looked comfortable when they regained the lead and did not look like a side who were set to throw it away.
The Baggies had been flying at home, but a huge 4-1 hammering at the hands of Derby left them shell-shocked, following it up with a 1-1 draw against Blackburn.
What we have seen from this West Brom side is that they are comfortable winning a game when they dominate the ball. The 4-1 victory over Reading and the 2-0 scoreline against Millwall saw them have over 60% possession.
However, the Blackburn and Derby games saw that drop to a 51/49 split in their favour, allowing the opposition more time on the ball has led to them failing to secure maximum points in recent weeks.
There have been games where they have had more of the ball and not won. It's probably a good time to mention that West Brom sit in the top eight when it comes to unsuccessful touches of the ball, wasting opportunities that are being presented to them.
For Leeds, they will be full of confidence having returned to the top of the table and Adam Forshaw has been introduced to the side following Samuel Saiz's poor form.
He is a player who has adjusted to the more attacking role in midfield, posting shots on goal in the games against Forest and Wigan. You would expect him to start again here, with Saiz providing the impact from the bench if required.
Given his more advanced position, there is every chance he could get amongst the scoring as someone who has demonstrated that they aren't afraid to try their luck when the opportunity presents itself.
The 10/1 price available on him netting anytime looks too high, but the value is still there even if it does drop down to around the 6/1 mark.
Premier League official Lee Mason is the man tasked with refereeing this one. The Baggies sit in the top half for cards shown at home this season, and there should be more here with Leeds one of the division's most-fouled teams.
My eye was caught by the huge 9/1 on offer for Jay Rodriguez to be shown a card. The forward has two cards to his name already and has committed the most fouls in this West Brom squad.
United's high-pressing style of play often leads to turnovers and fouls. Rodriguez will be under pressure every time he is on the ball and that could lead to those late challenges that catch the referee's attention.
The 29-year-old committed two fouls in last week's loss at Hull, with three on his tally in the draw with Blackburn before that (over 37% of the fouls committed by Baggies' players in that game were from Rodriguez).
It is worth backing, even if that price does drop a bit. The sheer number of fouls committed are bound to grab the referee's attention, it is then up to Mason if he feels it warrants a booking.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- This is the first meeting between West Brom and Leeds since January 2007 – the Baggies won 3-2 at Elland Road in a Championship match.
- Leeds have lost four of their last five matches against West Brom at the Hawthorns, winning the other in the Premier League in August 2002.
- Leeds have kept one clean sheet in their last 24 away league matches at West Brom – a 1-0 win in April 1972.
- After a seven game unbeaten run that saw them scored 18 goals (2.6 per game), West Brom are winless in their last four (D1 L3), scoring just twice in that run (0.5 per game).
- Leeds are the only team yet to lose a single point from a winning position in the Championship this season.
- Leeds’ Kemar Roofe has scored in each of his last three league games – he’s never previously scored in four consecutive league appearances.
Odds correct at 1640 GMT (08/11/18)
